The near repeat risk calculation of residential burglaries in Hillcrest, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa : a criminological analysis

Abstract

This research applies the Near Repeat Calculator (NRC) to identify near repeat residential burglary patterns in the Hillcrest (KZN) policing area for the first time. A total of 490 residential burglaries, over a 12-month period, reported to Hillcrest police station were mapped (geocoded) and the near repeat calculations were visualised using the Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The month-to-month near repeat calculations are analysed and suggest that the NRC is a valuable tool that can predict the space-time locations of near repeat residential burglaries in the Hillcrest policing area.

Lolu cwaningo lusebenzisa i-Near Repeat Calculator (NRC) ukuhlonza amaphethini okuphindaphindeka kwezigameko zokugqekezwa kwamakhaya endaweni eyenganyelwe yisiteshi samaphoyisa sase-Hillcrest (KZN). Izigameko zokugqekezwa kwamakhaya ezingama-490 ezabikwa esiteshini samaphoyisa sase- Hillcrest esikhathini esiyizinyanga eziyi-12 zaboniswa emfanekisweni webalazwe lendawo (geocoded) futhi izilinganiso zamathuba okuthi ziphinde zenzeke izigameko zokugqekezwa kwamakhaya zaboniswa ngokuthi kusetshenziswe umfanekiso owenziwe nge-Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Kwahlaziywa amathuba enyanga nenyanga okuphindaphindeka kwezigameko, futhi imiphumela eyatholakala kulokhu iyabonisa ukuthi i-NRC iyithuluzi eliwusizo impela elingabikezela izindawo nesikhathi lapho kungaphinda futhi kwenzeke khona izigameko zokugqekezwa kwamakhaya endaweni eyenganyelwe yisiteshi samaphoyisa sase-Hillcrest.

Olu phando lusebenzisa uhlobo lokubala olwaziwa ngokuba yiNear Repeat Calculator (NRC) ngenjongo yokubona isimbo sokuqhekezwa kwezindlu zabantu kummandla ophantsi kwamapolisa aseHillcrest (eKZN). Kuqwalaselwe ama-490 eziganeko zoqhekezo lwemizi ezaxelwa emapoliseni aseHillcrest kwisithuba seenyanga ezili-12, kwaye uhlobo lokubala oluqikelela ukuphindwa kweziganeko zoqhekezo luboniswe ngokusebenzisa inkqubo ekuthiwa yiGeographic Information Systems (GIS). Ubalo oluqikelela ukuphindwa kweziganeko luphononongiwe kwinyanga nenyanga, kwaye iziphumo zibonisa ukuba iNRC sisixhobo esinexabiso, esinokukwazi ukuqikelela indawo nexesha apho kunokuphinda kuqhekezwe khona kummandla ophantsi kwamapolisa aseHillcrest.