On quantifying miltary strategy.

Abstract

Military Strategy is defined as a plan at the military strategic level of war that consists of a set of military strategic ends, ways and means and the relationships between them. This definition leads to the following research questions: 1. How can the extent of the many-to-many relationships that exist between a military strategy, its ends, ways and means be quantified? 2. If the relationships between a military strategy, its ends, ways and means are quantified and if the effectiveness of the force design elements is known, how shall that enable the quantification of the state’s ability to execute its military strategy? 3. If the relationships between a military strategy, its ends, ways and means are quantified and if the effectiveness of the force design elements is known, how will it aid decision-making about the acquisition of the future force design? The first research question is answered by mapping a military strategy complete with its ends, ways and means to a ranked tree where the entities in the strategy corresponds with the vertices of different rank in the tree. The tree representation is used to define and determine the contribution of entities in a military strategy to entities at the next higher level. It is explained how analytical, heuristic and judgement methods can be employed to find the relative and real contribution values. Also, a military strategy for South Africa is developed to demonstrate the concept. The second research question is answered by developing measures of effectiveness taking the interdependence of entities at the terminal vertices of the ranked tree into account. Thereafter, the degree to which the force design would support the higher order entities inclusive of a military strategy could be calculated. The third research question is answered by developing a cost-benefit analysis method and a distance indicator from an optimal point to aid in deciding between supplier options for acquisition. Thereafter the knapsack problem is amended to allow for scheduling acquisition projects whilst optimising the force design's support of a military strategy. Finally, the model is validated and put into a contextual framework for use in the military.