Assessing the impact of regional trade agreements on export flows : a study of Sub-Saharan African (SSA) RTAs

Abstract

Studies explaining international the impacts of regional trade agreements (RTAs) on trade flows in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are sparse. The available research indicates that inter-regional trade in SSA is limited because the countries in the region appear to have similar patterns of trade. The available literature is based largely on data that is at least 5 years old and although the impact of overlapping membership has recently been incorporated in the literature, there is need for more attention on the impact of overlapping membership of RTAs on trade amongst these countries, especially considering the ambiguity in the findings. This study adopts the gravity model to investigate the impact of RTAs in SSA on the exports of the RTA member countries. Using trade data of 42 SSA countries, this study applies panel data-estimation techniques, to explain the impact of RTAs on exports within the major RTAs in SSA. The study finds that membership to COMESA, EAC and ECOWAS blocs enhances the RTA exports. However, although membership to SADC enhances intra-regional exports, the relative contribution is less than that of the ECOWAS, COMESA and the EAC. This might be due to the dominance of South Africa within SADC, not only in regional trade, but also in other economic aspects such as manufacturing, transport and warehousing. In terms of the impact of overlapping membership, the overlap between EAC and COMESA enhances exports of the countries in the overlap, such as Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda than the overlap between SADC and COMESA. Tanzania has dual membership of SADC and EAC and is the only country to benefit because of this dual membership. Furthermore, the findings reveal that China has a favorable and considerable impact on exports of all SSA countries in the three RTAs.

Dithutopatlisiso tse di tlhalosang ditlamorago tsa boditšhabatšhaba tsa ditumelano tsa kgwebisano ya mo kgaolong (di-RTA) mo kelelong ya dithomeloteng le dithomelontle mo Dikgaolong tsa Aforika tse di mo Borwa jwa Sahara (SSA) di mmalwanyana fela. Tlhotlhomiso e e setseng e le teng e kaya gore kgwebisano ya mo kgaolong mo SSA e nnyane gonne dinaga tse di mo kgaolong di bonala di na le mekgwatiriso e e tshwanang ya kgwebisano. Dikwalo tse di leng teng di theilwe segolo thata mo deitheng ya sebaka sa bonnye dingwaga di le 5 mme le fa ditlamorago tsa gore naga e e rileng ke leloko la ditumelano di le mmalwa tsa kgwebisano ya mo kgaolong di sa tswa go akarediwa mo dikwalweng, go na le tlhokego ya go tsepamisa thata mo ditlamoragong tsa gore naga e e rileng e nne leloko la di-RTA di le mmalwa mo kgwebisanong ya fa gare ga dinaga tseno, segolo bogolo re akanyetsa bokaopedi jo bo tlhagelelang mo diphitlhelelong. Thutopatlisiso eno e dirisa sekao sa ponelopele ya seemo sa ikonomi ya dinaga tse di gwebisanang go ya ka selekano sa kgwebisano ya tsone go batlisisa ditlamorago tsa di-RTA mo SSA mo dithomelong-ntle tsa dinaga tse e leng maloko a RTA. Ka go dirisa deitha ya kgwebisano ya dinaga di le 34 tsa SSA, thutopatlisiso eno e dirisa mekgwatiriso ya go fopholetsa deitha e e kgobokantsweng ka go baya leitlho mo sampoleng e le nosi mo nakong e e rileng, go tlhalosa ditlamorago tsa di-RTA mo dithomelong-ntle tse di diregang mo di-RTA tse dikgolo mo SSA. Thutopatlisiso e fitlhelela gore dinaga tse di dirisanang mmogo tsa COMESA, EAC le ECOWAS di na le seabe se segolo mo dithomelong-ntle tsa kgaolo. Le fa go ntse jalo, le fa go nna leloko la SADC go oketsa dithomelontle tsa mo gare ga kgaolo, seabe sa papiso se ka fa tlase ga sa ECOWAS, COMESA le EAC. Seno e ka tswa e le ka ntlha ya maatla le tlhotlheletso ya Aforikaborwa mo SADC, e seng fela mo kgwebisanong ya mo kgaolong, mme gape mo dikarolwaneng tse dingwe tsa ikonomi tse di jaaka tlhagisokuno mo madirelong, dipalangwa le polokelo ya dikuno. Go nna leloko la di-RTA di le mmalwa fa gare ga EAC le COMESA go na le seabe se segolo mo dithomelong-ntle tsa dinaga tse e leng maloko a di-RTA di le mmalwa, tse di jaaka Kenya, Rwanda le Uganda go feta sa dinaga tse e leng maloko a di-RTA di le mmalwa fa gare ga SADC le COMESA. Ke Tanzania fela e e nang le botokololo-pedi jwa SADC le EAC mme naga e ikungwela mosola ka ntlha ya botokololo-ithutopatlisiso tse di tlhalosang ditlamorago tsa boditšhabatšhaba tsa ditumelano tsa kgwebisano ya mo kgaolong (di-RTA) mo kelelong ya dithomeloteng le dithomelontle mo Dikgaolong tsa Aforika tse di mo Borwa jwa Sahara (SSA) di mmalwanyana fela. Tlhotlhomiso e e setseng e le teng e kaya gore kgwebisano ya mo kgaolong mo SSA e nnyane gonne dinaga tse di mo kgaolong di bonala di na le mekgwatiriso e e tshwanang ya kgwebisano. Dikwalo tse di leng teng di theilwe segolo thata mo deitheng ya sebaka sa bonnye dingwaga di le 5 mme le fa ditlamorago tsa gore naga e e rileng ke leloko la ditumelano di le mmalwa tsa kgwebisano ya mo kgaolong di sa tswa go akarediwa mo dikwalweng, go na le tlhokego ya go tsepamisa thata mo ditlamoragong tsa gore naga e e rileng e nne leloko la di-RTA di le mmalwa mo kgwebisanong ya fa gare ga dinaga tseno, segolo bogolo re akanyetsa bokaopedi jo bo tlhagelelang mo diphitlhelelong. Thutopatlisiso eno e dirisa sekao sa ponelopele ya seemo sa ikonomi ya dinaga tse di gwebisanang go ya ka selekano sa kgwebisano ya tsone go batlisisa ditlamorago tsa di-RTA mo SSA mo dithomelong-ntle tsa dinaga tse e leng maloko a RTA. Ka go dirisa deitha ya kgwebisano ya dinaga di le 34 tsa SSA, thutopatlisiso eno e dirisa mekgwatiriso ya go fopholetsa deitha e e kgobokantsweng ka go baya leitlho mo sampoleng e le nosi mo nakong e e rileng, go tlhalosa ditlamorago tsa di-RTA mo dithomelong-ntle tse di diregang mo di-RTA tse dikgolo mo SSA. Thutopatlisiso e fitlhelela gore dinaga tse di dirisanang mmogo tsa COMESA, EAC le ECOWAS di na le seabe se segolo mo dithomelong-ntle tsa kgaolo. Le fa go ntse jalo, le fa go nna leloko la SADC go oketsa dithomelontle tsa mo gare ga kgaolo, seabe sa papiso se ka fa tlase ga sa ECOWAS, COMESA le EAC. Seno e ka tswa e le ka ntlha ya maatla le tlhotlheletso ya Aforikaborwa mo SADC, e seng fela mo kgwebisanong ya mo kgaolong, mme gape mo dikarolwaneng tse dingwe tsa ikonomi tse di jaaka tlhagisokuno mo madirelong, dipalangwa le polokelo ya dikuno. Go nna leloko la di-RTA di le mmalwa fa gare ga EAC le COMESA go na le seabe se segolo mo dithomelong-ntle tsa dinaga tse e leng maloko a di-RTA di le mmalwa, tse di jaaka Kenya, Rwanda le Uganda go feta sa dinaga tse e leng maloko a di-RTA di le mmalwa fa gare ga SADC le COMESA. Ke Tanzania fela e e nang le botokololo-pedi jwa SADC le EAC mme naga e ikungwela mosola ka ntlha ya botokololo-

Ucwaningo oluchaza amazwe ngamazwe umthelela wezivumelwano zohwebo zesifunda (ama-RTA) ekuhwebeni kweningizimu Sahara ye-Africa (SSA) luncane. Ucwaningo olutholakalayo lubonisa ukuthi ukuhwebelana phakathi kwezifunda ku-SSA kunqunyelwe ngoba amazwe akulesi sifunda abonakala enamaphethini afanayo okuhweba. Izincwadi ezitholakalayo zisekelwe kakhulu emininingwaneni okungenani eneminyaka emi-5 ubudala futhi nakuba umthelela wobulungu wokusebenzisana usanda kufakwa ezincwadini, kunesidingo sokunakwa okwengeziwe emtheleleni wokubambisana kobulungu be-RTA kwezohwebo phakathi kwalawa mazwe, ikakhulukazi uma kubhekwa ukungaqondakali kokutholakele. Lolu cwaningo lwamukela isifanekiso sokubikezela ukuze kuphenywe umthelela wama-RTA ku-SSA ekuthengisweni ngaphandle kwamazwe angamalungu e-RTA. Kusetshenziswa imininingwane yokuhweba yamazwe angama-34 e-SSA, lolu cwaningo lusebenzisa amasu wesampula yabahlanganyeli wokulinganisa imininingwane, ukuchaza umthelela wama-RTA ekuthunyelweni kwamanye amazwe ngaphakathi kwama-RTA amakhulu ku-SSA. Ucwaningo luthola ukuthi amaqembu anentshisekelo efanayo i-COMESA, EAC kanye ne-ECOWAS aneqhaza elikhulu ekuthunyelweni kwempahla kwamanye amazwe esifunda. Nokho, nakuba ubulungu be-SADC buthuthukisa ukuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe ngaphakathi kwesifunda, umnikelo ohlobene ungaphansi kwalowo we-ECOWAS, COMESA kanye ne-EAC. Lokhu kungase kube ngenxa yokubusa kweNingizimu Afrika ngaphakathi kwe-SADC, hhayi kuphela ekuhwebeni kwesifunda, kodwa nakwezinye izici zomnotho ezifana nokukhiqiza, ezokuthutha kanye nokugcinwa kwempahla. Ukusebenzisana phakathi kwe-EAC ne-COMESA kunomthelela omkhulu ekuthengisweni kwamanye amazwe emazweni asebenzisanayo, afana ne-Kenya, i-Rwanda ne-Uganda kunokusebenzisana phakathi kwe-SADC ne-COMESA. ITanzania kuphela enobulungu obukabili be-SADC ne-EAC futhi izwe liyazuza ngenxa yalobu bulungu obukabili. Ngaphezu kwalokho, okutholakele kuveza ukuthi i-China inomthelela omuhle futhi omkhulu ekuthengisweni kwamanye amazwe kwawo wonke amazwe e-SSA kuma-RTA amane.