Historically, most central banks have tended to prioritise price stability over financial stability.
The study focused on members of the Southern African Development Community (SADC)
from 2009 to 2018. These members were Angola, Botswana, the Democratic Republic of the
Congo, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, South
Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe. This study investigated the relationship
between price stability and financial stability. Global economic developments, namely global
financial crises, have demonstrated that financial instability can occur during periods of price
stability. Consequently, it was necessary to quantitatively investigate the nature of the above
relationship. There have been instances of global financial crises occurring during periods of
low inflation. This study sought to analyse the relationship between these two important central
bank objectives, with a focus on the banking sectors of 15 SADC nations.
The study was premised on the following research questions:
a) How do changes in financial stability indicators affect the inflation rate in the SADC
region?
b) What is the nature of the causal relationship between price stability and financial
stability?
The research followed a positivist hypothetico-deductive methodology. Due to the quantitative
nature of the variables and the methodology adopted by most empirical studies, it was
determined that a quantitative approach was appropriate. The modelling software EViews was
utilised. The period covered by the data analysis for the banking sectors of the 15 SADC
countries was from 2009 to 2018. The inflation rate was used as a measure of price stability
in this study. Capital adequacy ratio, deposits to loans ratio, non-performing loans to total
loans ratio, liquidity ratio, return on assets and return on equity are all measures of financial
stability. A fixed effects regression model was employed to assess the impact of changes in financial stability indicators on price stability in the SADC region from 2009 to 2018 for SADC
member states. The Granger causality test was used to examine the relationship between
price stability and financial stability variables. Even though the financial system comprises
both banking and non-bank financial institutions, this study was limited to banking institutions.
The focus was, therefore, on entities that fall under the financial sector oversight mechanisms
of central banks.
The study reveals a significant negative relationship between the liquidity ratio and inflation,
but a significant positive relationship between return on equity and inflation. An R-squared
value of 0.5234 indicates that 52.34 per cent of changes in price stability as measured by
inflation can be explained by changes in the selected indicators of financial stability. Other
indicators of financial stability were deemed insignificant, as evidenced by probability values
greater than 0.05 in the model. Non-performing loans to total loans ratio, return on assets and
return on equity had a unidirectional causal association with price stability. It was observed
that past inflation had a high probability of causing future non-performing loans, while past
return on assets and return on equity had a high probability of causing inflation. According to
the study's findings, the relationship between price stability and financial stability has
significant policy implications, including ensuring that the macro-economic convergence
agenda adopts a harmonised approach to financial stability with the same clarity given to price
stability, whose convergence criteria are based on an inflation target range of 3-7 per cent.
Regional harmonisation of policies aimed at financial stability and a subsequent regard to the
same in the macro-economic convergence agenda will ensure, among other things, that
monetary policy in the SADC region not only pursues price stability through inflation targeting,
but also deliberately and intentionally addresses financial stability issues, which would be
assessed at national and regional levels using unified criteria and clearly specified indicators
of financial stability.
Ngokomlando, amabhange amakhulu amaningi abejwayele ukubeka phambili ukusimama
kwentengo kunokusimama kwezezimali. Lolu cwaningo belugxile kumalungu Omphakathi
Wentuthuko YaseNingizimu Afrika (SADC) kusukela ngo-2009 kuya ku-2018, okuyi-Angola,
Botswana, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius,
Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, iNingizimu Afrika, Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia kanye ne
Zimbabwe. Lolu cwaningo luphenye ubudlelwano phakathi kokusimama kwentengo
nokusimama kwezezimali. Intuthuko yezomnotho emhlabeni wonke, okuyizingqinamba
zezimali zomhlaba wonke, ibonise ukuthi ukuntengantenga kwezezimali kungenzeka
ngezikhathi zokusimama kwentengo. Ngakho-ke, bekudingeka ukuthi kuphenywe
ngokwesilinganiso uhlobo lobudlelwano obungenhla. Kube nezimo zezinkinga zezimali
zomhlaba ezenzeka ngezikhathi zokwehla kwamandla emali. Lolu cwaningo belufuna
ukuhlaziya ubudlelwano phakathi kwalezi zinhloso ezimbili ezibalulekile zamabhange
amakhulu, kugxilwe emikhakheni yamabhange yamazwe ayi-15 e-SADC.
Ucwaningo belusekelwe emibuzweni yocwaningo elandelayo:
c) Ushintsho lwezinkomba zokusimama kwezezimali lulithinta kanjani izinga lokwehla
kwamandla emali esifundeni se-SADC?
d) Luyini uhlobo lobudlelwano oluyimbangela phakathi kokusimama kwentengo
nokusimama kwezezimali?
Ucwaningo lulandele indlela yencazelo ehlongozwayo yendlela yesayensi. Ngenxa yesimo
sobuningi bezinto eziguquguqukayo kanye nendlela eyamukelwa ucwaningo oluningi
olunobufakazi, kwanqunywa ukuthi indlela yokulinganisa yayifanelekile. Isofthiwe
yesifanekiso se-E-Views sasetshenziswa. Isikhathi esihlanganiswa nokuhlaziywa
kwemininingwane yemikhakha yamabhange yamazwe ayi-15 e-SADC sasuka ngo-2009 kuya
ku-2018. Izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali lisetshenziswe njengesilinganiso sokusimama kwentengo kulolu cwaningo. Isilinganiso sokulingana kwemali mboleko, isilinganiso
sediphozithi emalini ebolekiwe, imali ebolekiwe engasebenzi esilinganisweni sesamba semali
mboleko, isilinganiso semali mboleko, imbuyiselo yezimpahla kanye nembuyiselo
ekulinganeni konke kuyizinyathelo zokusimama kwezezimali. Kusetshenziswe isifanekiso
sokwehla kwemiphumela engaguquki ukuze kuhlolwe umthelela wezinguquko zezinkomba
zokusimama kwezezimali ekusimameni kwamanani esifundeni se-SADC kusukela ngo-2009
kuya ku-2018 emazweni angamalungu e-SADC. Ukuhlolwa komqondo wezibalo ka-Granger
kwasetshenziswa ukuhlola ubudlelwano phakathi kokusimama kwentengo nokuhlukahluka
kokusimama kwezimali. Nakuba uhlelo lwezezimali luhlanganisa izikhungo zezimali
zamabhange nezingezona ezamabhange, lolu cwaningo belukhawulelwe ezikhungweni
zamabhange kuphela. Ngakho-ke kwakugxilwe ezinhlanganweni eziwela ngaphansi
kwezindlela zokwengamela umkhakha wezezimali wamabhange amakhulu.
Ucwaningo luveza ubudlelwano obubi obubalulekile phakathi kwesilinganiso semalimboleko
kanye nokwehla kwamandla emali, kodwa ubudlelwano obuhle obubalulekile phakathi
kwembuyiselo kukulingana nokwehla kwamandla emali. Inani eliyisikwele esingu-R lika-
0.5234 libonisa ukuthi u-52.34% wezinguquko ekusimameni kwentengo njengoba
kulinganiswa nokwehla kwamandla emali kungachazwa ngezinguquko zezinkomba
ezikhethiwe zokusimama kwezezimali. Ezinye izinkomba zokusimama kwezezimali zithathwe
njengezingabalulekile, njengoba kufakazelwa amanani okungenzeka angaphezu kuka-0.05
esifanekisweni. Izimali mboleko ezingasebenzi esilinganisweni sesamba semali mboleko,
imbuyiselo ezimpahleni kanye nembuyiselo ekulinganeni kube nokuhlotshaniswa kwesizathu
esingaqondile nokusimama kwentengo. Kwaqashelwa ukuthi ukwehla kwamandla emali
esikhathini esidlule kwakunethuba elikhulu lokubangela imali ebolekiwe engasebenzi
esikhathini esizayo, kuyilapho imbuyiselo yesikhathi esidlule yezimpahla nembuyiselo
kukulingana kwakunethuba elikhulu lokubangela ukwehla kwamandla emali. Ngokwalokho
okutholwe ocwaningweni, ubudlelwano phakathi kokusimama kwentengo nokusimama
kwezezimali bunemithelela ebalulekile yenqubomgomo, okuhlanganisa nokuqinisekisa ukuthi uhlelo lokufana komnotho wamazwe ahlukene lusebenzisa indlela evumelanayo yokusimama
kwezezimali nokucaciswa okufanayo okunikezwa ukusimama kwentengo, okusekelwe
ekuguquguqukeni kwentengo, uhla okuhlosiwe ngalo kusuka ku-3 kuya ku-7%.
Ukuvunyelaniswa kwezinqubomgomo zesifunda okuhloswe ngazo ukusimama kwezezimali
kanye nokubhekwa okulandelayo ohlelweni lokufana komnotho wamazwe ahlukene
kuzoqinisekisa, phakathi kokunye, ukuthi inqubomgomo yezimali esifundeni se-SADC ayigcini
nje ngokuphishekela ukusimama kwamanani ngokuqondisa ukwehla kwamandla emali,
kodwa futhi ngamabomu nangenhloso ibhekana nezindaba zokusimama kwezezimali,
ezizohlolwa emazingeni kazwelonke nawesifunda kusetshenziswa indlela yokunquma
ebumbene kanye nezinkomba ezicaciswe ngokucacile zokusimama kwezezimali.
Ho latela nalane, boholo ba dibanka tse bohareng di na le tshekamelo ya ho etelletsa pele
botsitso ba theko ho feta botsitso ba ditjhelete. Thuto ena e ne e tsepamisitse maikutlo ho
Setjhaba sa Dinaha tse ka Borwa ho Afrika (SADC) ho tloha ka 2009 ho isa 2018, e leng
Angola, Botswana, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi,
Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, Afrika Borwa, Swaziland, Tanzania,Zambia le
Zimbabwe.
Thuto ena e ile ya batlisisa kamano pakeng tsa botsitso ba theko le botsitso ba ditjhelete.
Dintshetsopele tsa moruo wa lefatshe, e leng mathata a ditjhelete a lefatshe, di bontshitse
hore ho se tsitse ha ditjhelete ho ka etsahala nakong ya botsitso ba ditheko. Ka lebaka leo,
ho ne ho hlokahala ho batlisisa ka mokgwa wa mofuta wa kamano e ka hodimo.
Ho bile le diketsahalo tsa mathata a ditjhelete a lefatshe a hlahang nakong ya theko e tlase.
Thuto ena e ne e batla ho sekaseka dikamano dipakeng tsa dipheo tsena tse pedi tsa
bohlokwa tsa banka e bohareng, ho tsepamisitswe maikutlo ho makala a dibanka a dinaha
tse 15 tsa SADC.
Thuto e ne e itshetlehile ka dipotso tse latelang tsa dipatlisiso:
e) Ho fetoha ha matshwao a botsitso ba ditjhelete ho ama sekgahla sa infleishene jwang
lebatoweng la SADC?
f) Ke mofuta ofe wa kamano ya sesosa pakeng tsa botsitso ba theko le botsitso ba
ditjhelete?
Dipatlisiso di ile tsa latela mokgwa wa ho bokella dintlha tse ngata ka ho sebedisa mekgwa
ya ho etsa dipatlisiso e fapaneng. Ka lebaka la sebopeho sa palo ya mefutafuta le mokgwa o
amohetsweng ke dithuto tse ngata tse nang le matla, ho ile ha etswa qeto ya hore mokgwa wa dipalopalo o nepahetse. Ho ile ha sebediswa sete ya ditaelo tse sebediswang ho tsamaisa
khomphutha ya mohlala wa E-Views.
Nako e akareditsweng ke tlhahlobo ya dintlha bakeng sa mafapha a dibanka a dinaha tse 15
tsa SADC e ne e le ho tloha 2009 ho isa 2018. Sekgahla sa infleishene se sebedisitswe e le
tekanyo ya botsitso ba theko thutong ena.
Karolelano ya tjhelete ya banka mabapi le thepa e lekantsweng ya kotsi le mekoloto ya hona
jwale,depositi ho dikadimo karolelano, mekoloto e sa sebetseng ho kakaretso ya dikadimo,
karolelano ya mokoloto, phaello ya thepa le ho kgutla ha tekano kaofela ke mehato ya botsitso
ba ditjhelete. Ho ile ha sebediswa mohlala o tsitsitseng wa phokotso ya maemo ho lekola
tshusumetso ya diphetoho tsa matshwao a botsitso ba ditjhelete mabapi le botsitso ba ditheko
sebakeng sa SADC ho tloha 2009 ho isa 2018 bakeng sa dinaha tseo e leng ditho tsa SADC.
Teko ya Granger ya sesosa e ile ya sebediswa ho hlahloba kamano pakeng tsa botsitso ba
theko le maemo a tsitsitseng a ditjhelete. Leha tsamaiso ya ditjhelete e kenyelletsa ditsi tsa
ditjhelete tsa banka le tseo e seng tsa banka, thuto ena e ne e lekanyeditswe ho ditsi tsa
banka feela. Ka hona, ho ne ho tsepamisitswe maikutlo hodima mekgatlo e welang tlasa
mekgwa ya tlhokomelo ya lefapha la ditjhelete tsa dibanka tse bohareng. Thuto ena e senola
kamano e mpe dipakeng tsa karolelano ya ditjhelete le infleishene, empa kamano e ntle e
teng dipakeng tsa phaello ya tekano le infleishene. Palo ya R-squared ya 0.5234 e bontsha
hore 52.34% ya diphetoho tsa botsitso ba theko e lekantsweng ke infleishene e ka hlaloswa
ka diphetoho ho matshwao a kgethilweng a botsitso ba ditjhelete.Dipontsho tse ding tsa
botsitso ba ditjhelete di ne di nkuwa di se na thuso, jwaloka di bontshitsweng ke ditekanyetso
tse kgolo ho feta 0.05 moetsong. Dikadimo tse sa sebetseng ho palo ya dikadimo kaofela, ho
kgutlisa thepa le ho kgutlisa tekano ho bile le kamano e sa lebellwang ya mabaka le botsitso
ba theko. Ho ile ha hlokomelwa hore ho infleishene ya nako e fetileng e bile le monyetla o
moholo wa ho baka dikadimo tse sa sebetseng nakong e tlang, athe puseletso ya nakong e
fetileng ya thepa le phaello ya tekano e ne e e na le monyetla o moholo wa ho baka
infleishene.Ho ya ka diphumano tsa thuto kamano pakeng tsa botsitso ba theko le botsitso ba ditjhelete di na le ditlamorao tse kgolo tsa leano, ho kenyelletsa le ho netefatsa hore lenane
la kgokahanyo ya moruo la thuto ya moruo ohle le amohela mokgwa o lumellanang wa botsitso
ba ditjhelete ka ho hlaka ho tshwanang ho fanwang ka botsitso ba theko, ba mekgwa ya ona
ya ho kopanya e itshetlehileng ka lebelo la infleishene la sepheo sa 3 ho isa ho 7%.Ho
dumellana ha lebatowa ha maano a reretsweng botsitso ba ditjhelete le ho ela hloko lenane
la kgokahanyo ya moruo ho tla netefatsa, hara tse ding, hore leano la ditjhelete lebatoweng
la SADC ha le latele botsitso ba ditheko feela ho lebisitswe ho infleishene, empa le ho
sebetsana le ditaba tsa ditjhelete ka boomo le ka moreo. ditaba tsa botsitso, tse tla hlahlojwa
maemong a naha le a lebatowa ho sebediswa mekgwa e kopaneng le matshwao a hlakileng
a botsitso ba ditjhelete.