Shopping centre development strategies for emerging markets in KwaZulu-Natal

Abstract

The first fully enclosed, airconditioned shopping mall in a black township in South Africa opened in 1979 in Umlazi, outside Durban. The provincial development corporation (lthala) spearheaded emerging market shopping centre development in KwaZulu-Natal to the extent that, with the involvement of the private sector, substantial knowledge and experience have been gained in shopping centre development in emerging markets over the past two decades. The study focuses on black shopping patterns and household income and expenditure in townships and rural areas in KwaZulu-Natal. The assessments include: • empirical trade areas; • geodemographics and geographic infonnation systems (GIS); • buying power modelling; • market share estimates; • retail hierarchies; • viability and feasibility studies; • centre design (including taxi rank developments); • informal trading; and • tenant mix; location; financing and research strategies. The study fonnulates a universal buying power model for KwaZulu-Natal that transcends ethnic and geographic classifications, to enhance, with the aid of computer technology and census information, the accuracy and cost effectiveness of viability and feasibility studies in shopping centre development. An IntegJ.-ated Commercial Assessment Model (JCAM) is formulated whereby demographic data of a trade area and financial feasibility parameters are integrated to assess the viability of a shopping centre. The study concludes that although there are many unique features associated with shopping centres in emerging market locations, the :fundamental principles that apply all over the world in shopping centre development, also apply to emerg1ng markets in KwaZulu-Natal. Relatively low disposable incomes limit the sustainable size of the emerging market shopping centre. Shopping centre locations are linked to the interdependence on public transportation by emerging market patrons. Factors conducive fo-r shopping centre development, such as high private vehicle ownership, high disposable income, willing retailers, effective town planning and state assistance, have not yet reached levels that would benefit the widespread development of shopping centres in townships. Emerging market shopping centre developments in the central business districts of rural towns, however, have been generally very successful and are setting the benchmarks in South Africa.

Die opening van die eerste ingeslote winkelsentrum met sentrale lugreeling in 'n swart woonbuurt in Suid-Afrika, het in 1979 in Umlazi (buite Durban) plaasgevind. Die provinsiale ontwikkelingskorporasie (Ithala) het aan die spits van winkelsentrum ontwikkeling in opkomende markte in KwaZulu-Natal gestaan. Die toetrede van die privaatsektor tot die mark het verder ook substansieel bygedra tot kennnis en ondervinding in winkelsentrumontwikkeling oor twee dekades in opkomende markte. Hierdie studie fokus op swart kooppatrone en huisgesin inkomste and uitgawes in swart woonbuurtes en landelike gebiede in KwaZulu-Natal. Die ondersoeke sluit die volgende in: • empiriese handelsgebiede; • geodemografie en geografiese inligtingstelsels (GIS); • koopkrag modellering; • markaandeel skatting; • kleinhandel hierargie; • lewensvatbaarheid en uitvoerbaarheid studies; • sentrum ontwerp (ingesluit taxi staanplek ontwikkelings); • informele handel; en huurdersamestelling, ligging. finansiering en navorsingsstrategie. Die studie formuleer 'n universele koopkrag model vir KwaZulu-Natal wat etniese en geografiese klassifikasies oorskry en met die hulp van 'n rekenaar en sensus inligling, die akkuraatheid en koste effektiwiteit van lewensvatbaarheid en uitvoerbaarheid studies in winkelsentrum ontwikkeling, moontlik maak. 'n Geintegreerde kommersiele evalueringsmodel (GKEM) is geformuleer waarmee demografiese data van 'n handelsgebied en finansiele data geintegreer word om die lewensvatbaarbeid van 'n winkelsentmm te evalueer. Die studie kom tot die gevolgtrekking dat, ongeag die baie unieke eienskappe van winkelsentrums in opkomende markte, die fundamentele reels wat reg oor die wereld met winkelsentrumontwikkeling toegepas word, ook vir die opkomende markte van KwaZulu-Natal geld. Relatief lae besteebare inkomstes beperk die drakrag grootte van winkelsentmms in opkomende markte. Winkelsentrumliggings word verbind met die interafhanklikheid van publieke vervoer van die marksegment. Faktore gunstig vir winkelsentrumontwikkeling soos hoe privaatmotorbesit, hoe besteebare inkomste, gewi1lige kleinhandelaars, effektiewe stadsbeplanning en staatsondersteuning het nog nie vlakke bereik wat die grootskaalse ontwikkeling van winkelsentrums in swart woonbuurtes bevoordeel nie. Winkelsentrumontwikkeling in die sentrale sakegebiede van landelike dorpe is wel, in die algemeen, suksesvol en stel tans die standaard vir winkelsentrumontwikkeling vir opkomende markte in Suid Africa.