Assessment of the effects of climate change, renewable energy consumption, economic and population growth on sugarcane productivity in South Africa from 1972-2021

Abstract

Sugarcane production in South Africa is influenced by several factors, including environmental dynamics (climate change, carbon dioxide emissions), consumption of renewable energy, population expansion, and economic growth. Understanding the intricate interdependencies between these variables is essential for sustainable agricultural planning. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method, this study examines the effects of climate change, renewable energy consumption, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, population growth, and economic growth on sugarcane production in South Africa. The study utilizes time-series data collected annually from various institutions between 1972 and 2021. This methodology facilitates a comprehensive assessment of both short- and long-term dynamics and their interactions by considering the variables of interest in this study. In the long run, temperature and carbon dioxide levels have a statistically significant negative impact on sugarcane yield, with significance levels at 10% and 1%, respectively. Conversely, rainfall, renewable energy consumption, and gross domestic product exhibit a statistically significant positive relationship with sugarcane yield. In the short run, the analysis showed that rainfall has a statistically significant negative effect on sugarcane yield at the 1% significance level. However, renewable energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions have statistically significant positive effects on sugarcane yield, both at the 10% significance level. The causality results indicated insufficient evidence to establish a causal relationship between sugarcane yield and temperature, renewable energy consumption, GDP, carbon dioxide emissions, and population growth. Nevertheless, a uni-directional causal relationship was identified from rainfall to sugarcane yield, indicating that changes in rainfall patterns may lead to changes in sugarcane yield. The study recommends focusing on growing the renewable energy sector by allocating resources to agriculture for bioenergy production.