The study examined the macroeconomic determinants of domestic private investment in South Africa, Botswana and Malawi for the period from 1980 to 2018, as well as the causal relationship between domestic private investment and its determinants. It also examined whether public investment crowds in or out private investment. Using the ARDL model (Model 1), the study found that public investment and domestic credit to the private sector are key determinants of domestic private investment in South Africa and Botswana. Economic growth is a determinant only in South Africa, while real interest rate is a determinant in Botswana and Malawi. Inflation is a determinant in South Africa and Malawi, while trade openness is a determinant of private investment in all the three countries. Using the NARDL model (Model 2a), the results showed that public investment has significant asymmetric effects on private investment in South Africa, Botswana and Malawi. Using the ARDL model, Model 2b and 2c of the study found that infrastructural public investment crowds in private investment in South Africa, in both the short- and long-run and it crowd out private investment in Botswana in the short-run. With non-infrastructural public investment, crowding out occurs in South Africa and Malawi in the long-run, while in the short-run, crowding out occurs in South Africa, and crowding in occurs in Botswana. In Model 3 there is bidirectional causality between i) private investment and public investment in all the three countries, (ii) private investment and trade openness in all the three countries, (iii) private investment and inflation in South Africa and Malawi, (iv) private investment and credit to the private sector in South Africa and Botswana, (v) private investment and interest rate in Malawi, and (vi) private investment and trade openness in South Africa and Malawi. The causality results also showed that that there is unidirectional causality from (i) economic growth to private investment in South Africa and from private investment to economic growth in Malawi, (ii) interest rate to private investment in Botswana and private investment to interest rate in South Africa, (iii) private investment to credit to the private sector in Malawi, and (iv) trade openness to private investment in Botswana. Based on the findings, policy-makers should pursue policies that will create a conducive environment that will promote private sector investment.
Ndzavisiso lowu wu kambele swikumisisi swa ikhonomikulu swa vuvekisi lebyi nga riki bya mfumo bya le tikweni eAfrika-Dzonga, Botswana na Malawi eka nkarhi wa 1980 kufika 2018, xikan'we na vuxaka lebyi nga na xivangelo exikarhi ka vuvekisi lebyi nga riki bya mfumo bya le tikweni na swikumisisi swa byona. Wu tlhele wu kambela loko vuvekisi bya mfumo byi ri na xitandzhaku xo hlengeleta kumbe xo hangalasa eka vuvekisi lebyi nga riki bya mfumo. Hi ku tirhisa modlolo wa ARDL (Modlolo wa 1), ndzavisiso lowu wu kume leswaku vuvekisi bya mfumo na xikweleti xa le tikweni eka sekitara leyi nga riki ya mfumo i swikumisisikulu swa vuvekisi lebyi nga riki bya mfumo bya le tikweni eAfrika-Dzonga na le Botswana. Ku kula ka ikhonomi i xikumisisi xa vuvekisi lebyi nga riki bya mfumo bya le tikweni ntsena eAfrika-Dzonga, naswona mpimo wa ntswalo wa xiviri i xikumisisi eBotswana na le Malawi. Inifulexini i xikumisisi xa vuvekisi lebyi nga riki bya mfumo bya le tikweni eAfrika-Dzonga na le Malawi, naswona mpfuleko wa mabindzu i xikumisisi eka matiko lamanharhu hinkwawo. Hi ku tirhisa modlolo wa NARDL (Modlolo wa 2a), mivuyelo leyi yi kombe leswaku vuvekisi bya mfumo byi na switandzhaku swa nkandzingano swo tivikana eka vuvekisi lebyi nga riki bya mfumo bya le tikweni eAfrika-Dzonga, eBotswana na le Malawi. Hi ku tirhisa modlolo wa ARDL, Modlolo wa 2b na 2c ku kumeke leswaku vuvekisi bya mfumo bya switirhisiwakulu byi hlengeleta vuvekisi lebyi nga riki bya mfumo eAfrika-Dzonga eka havumbirhi bya nkarhi wo koma na wo leha naswona byi hangalasa vuvekisi lebyi nga riki bya mfumo eBotswana eka nkarhi wo koma. Hi mayelana na vuvekisi bya mfumo eka leswi nga riki switirhisiwakulu, ku hangalasa swi humelela eAfrika-Dzonga na le Malawi eka nkarhi wo leha, naswona ku hangalasa swi humelela eAfrika-Dzonga, kasi ku hlengeleta swi humelela eBotswana eka nkarhi wo koma. Eka Modlolo wa 3, ku na xivangelo xa matlhelombirhi exikarhi ka (i) vuvekisi lebyi nga riki bya mfumo na vuvekisi bya mfumo eka matiko lamanharhu hinkwawo (ii) vuvekisi lebyi nga riki bya mfumo na mpfuleko wa mabindzu eka matiko lamanharhu hinkwawo, (iii) vuvekisi lebyi nga riki bya mfumo na inifulexini eAfrika-Dzonga na le Malawi, (iv) vuvekisi lebyi nga riki bya mfumo na xikweleti eka sekitara leyi nga riki ya mfumo eAfrika-Dzonga na le Botswana, (v) vuvekisi lebyi nga riki bya mfumo na mpimo wa ntswalo eMalawi, na (vi) vuvekisi lebyi nga riki bya mfumo na mpfuleko wa mabindzu eAfrika-Dzonga na le Malawi. Mivuyelo leyi nga na xivangelo yi tlhele yi komba leswaku ku na xivangelo lexi yaka etlhelo rin'we (i) kusuka eka ku kula ka ikhonomi kuya eka vuvekisi lebyi nga riki bya mfumo eAfrika-Dzonga na kusuka eka vuvekisi lebyi nga riki bya mfumo kuya eka ku kula ka ikhonomi eMalawi, (ii) kusuka eka mpimo wa ntswalo kuya eka vuvekisi lebyi nga riki bya mfumo eBotswana na kusuka eka vuvekisi lebyi nga riki bya mfumo kuya eka mpimo wa ntswalo eAfrika-Dzonga, (iii) kusuka eka vuvekisi lebyi nga riki bya mfumo kuya eka xikweleti eka sekitara leyi nga riki ya mfumo eMalawi, na (iv) kusuka eka mpfuleko wa mabindzu kuya eka vuvekisi lebyi nga riki bya mfumo eBotswana. Hi ku ya hi swikumiwa, vaendlatipholisi va fanele ku landza tipholisi leti ti nga ta tumbuluxa mbangu lowu wu nga ta kondletela vuvekisi bya sekitara leyi nga riki ya mfumo.
Nyakisiso ye e sekasekile dintlha tsa makheroikonomi tseo di huetsago dipeeletso tsa phoraebete ka Afrika Borwa, Botswana le Malawi mo lebakeng la 1980 go fihla ka 2018, gammogo le kamano magareng ga sya phoraebete ya dinaga le mabaka a dipeeletso. Nyakisiso e sekasekile gape ge e ba dipeeletso tsa mmuso di hlahlosa goba di phuhlamisa kelo ya tswala go dipeeletso tsa phoraebete. Ka go somisa mmotlolo wa ARDL (Mmotlolo wa 1), nyakisiso e hweditse gore peeletso ya mmuso le sekoloto sa naga go lekala la phoraebete ke dintlha tse di laolago dipeeletso sphoraebete ka Afrika Borwa le Botswana. Kgolo ya ikonomi e laola dipeeletso tsa phoraebete ka Afrika Borwa fela, gomme kelotswala ke laola ka Botswana le Malawi. Infleisene e laola dipeeletso tsa phoraebete ka Afrika Borwa le Malawi, gomme kgwebisano ya boditshabatshaba e a laola ka dinageng tse tharo ka moka. Ka go somisa mmotlolo wa NARDL (Mmotlolo wa 2a), dipoelo di laeditse gore peeletso ya mmuso e na le dipoelo tsa go se lekalekane go dipeeletso tsa phoraebete ka Afrika Borwa, Botswana le Malawi. Ka go somisa mmotlolo wa ARDL, Mmotlolo wa 2b le 2c nyakisiso e hweditse gore dipeeletso tsa mmuso tsa mananeokgoparara di hlahlosa kelo ya tswala go dipeeletso tsa phoraebete ka Afrika Borwa go nako ye kopana le ye telele gomme di phuhlamisa dipeeletso tsa phoraebete ka Botswana go nako ye kopana. Go dipeeletso tsa mmuso tseo e sego tsa mananeokgoparara, phuhlamo ya kelo ya tswala e ba gona ka Afrika Borwa le Malawi ka nako ye telele, gape phuhlamo ya kelo ya tswala e ba ka Afrika Borwa gomme hlahloso ya kelo ya tswala e ba ka Botswana ka nako ye kopana. Mo mmotlolong wa 3, go na le kamano magareng ga (i) peeletso ya phoraebete le peeletso ya mmuso go dinaga tse tharo ka moka, (ii) peeletso ya phoraebete le kgwebisano ya boditshabatshaba go dinaga tse tharo ka moka, (iii) peeletso ya phoraebete le infleisene ka Afrika Borwa le Malawi, (iv) peeletso ya phoraebete le sekoloto go lekala la phoraebete ka Afrika Borwa le Botswana, (v) peeletso ya phoraebete le kelotswala ka Malawi, le (vi) peeletso ya phoraebete le kgwebisano ya boditshabatshaba ka Afrika Borwa le Malawi. Dipoelo tsa kamano di laeditse gape gore go na le kamano ya tsela e tee (i) go tswa go kgolo ya ikonomi go ya go peeletso ya phoraebete ka Afrika Borwa le go tswa go peeletso ya phoraebete go ya go kgolo ya ikonomi ka Malawi, (ii) go tswa go kelotswala go ya go peeletso ya phoraebete ka Botswana le go tswa go peeletso ya phoraebete go ya go kelotswala ka Afrika Borwa, (iii) go tloga go peeletso ya phoraebete go ya go sekoloto go lekala la phoraebete ka Malawi, le (iv) go tswa go kgwebisano ye e bulegilego ya dinaga go ya go peeletso ya phoraebete ka Botswana. Go ya ka diphihlelelo, boramolao ba swanetse go tla ka melawana yeo e tlago hlola sebaka sa go hlohleletsa dipeeletso go makala a phoraebete
