The study investigated the relationship between banking sector development and stock
market development in Southern Africa, with special focus on the Southern Africa
Development Community (SADC). Using the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR)
and System Generalised Methods of Moments (SGMM) on data from nine SADC
countries, study results show that banks and stock markets complement each other in
funding economic growth in the region. The results also show that regional integration
through the trade protocol (TP) and the finance and investment protocol (FIP) improves
the complementary effect of banks and stock markets on economic growth. The growth
model outlined shows that stepping up efforts to promote regional integration improves
the complementarity between the expansion of the banking industry and the growth of the
stock market in terms of financing economic growth. The study also looked at how
institutional settings affected how the banking industry and stock market development
interacted. The findings demonstrate that the rule of law does not change the nature of
the relationship, but it does lessen the complimentary impact of stock market and banking
sector expansion on economic growth. The study used the banking sector development
and stock market development models to test the validity of the findings and determine
whether the association holds. Therefore, the study further investigated the determinants
of banking sector and stock market development where stock market and banking sector
indicators were included as regressors. Stock market development was found to have a
positive impact on banking sector development while stock market capitalisation
positively impacted credit extended by deposit money banks. This result confirmed the complementary relationship shown by the growth model. Urbanisation had a positive
effect on banking sector development, private credit extension and banking sector
efficiency but it negatively impacted banking sector stability. Population density had a
positive impact on private credit extension and banking sector stability while inequality
positively influenced banking sector development and banking sector stability. The results
also reveal that banking sector development positively influences stock market
development and stock market capitalisation while private credit by deposit money banks
enhanced stock market development, stock market size, stock market liquidity and stock
market efficiency. This conclusion also supported the notion that the growth of the
banking sector and the stock market, as well as the size of the stock market and the credit
extended by banks, all contribute to the development of the stock market in terms of its
size, liquidity and efficiency. This result showed that banking sector development
contributed more to the development of stock markets compared to the effect of stock
markets on banks. Press freedom was found to positively affect stock market size and
stock market liquidity. Industrialisation on the other hand had a negative effect on stock
market size while capital flight negatively impacted stock market development, stock
market size and stock market liquidity. The study also uncovered the positive effect of
pegged exchange rate regime on stock market development and stock market
capitalisation while the crawling and managed regimes positively influenced stock market
size. On the contrary, the floating regime had a detrimental effect on stock market
development and stock market capitalisation. The findings also show that the banking
sector in SADC is still underdeveloped characterised by low credit extension and high
inefficiency though it is stable. Stock markets were also found to be underdeveloped characterised by small size, low liquidity and low levels of efficiency. These findings
suggest that the rise of the banking industry and the stock market complement one
another in providing capital for economic expansion, and that regional integration
strengthens this complementary relationship. The rule of law, however, lessens this
complimentary effect. To improve the complementarity between the growth of the banking
sector and the growth of the stock market in providing financing for economic growth,
policymakers should concentrate on fostering regional integration and enhancing the rule
of law. The expansion of the banking sector has been found to have a higher positive
impact on stock market development than vice versa. Therefore, they should focus their
efforts on improving loan extension and efficiency in this area.
Lolu cwaningo luphenye ubudlelwano phakathi kokuthuthukiswa komkhakha
wamabhange kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwezimakethe zamasheya e-Afrika eseNingizimu,
kugxilwe ngokukhethekile eMphakathini oThuthukayo oseNingizimu ne-Afrika (SADC).
Kusetshenziswa ukwehla okubonakala kungahlobene (i-SUR) kanye nendlela yezikhathi
ezijwayelekile zohlelo (i-SGMM) emininingwaneni evela emazweni ayisishiyagalolunye e-
SADC, imiphumela yocwaningo ikhombisa ukuthi amabhange nezimakethe zamasheya
kuyahambisana ekuxhaseni ngezimali ukukhula komnotho esifundeni. Imiphumela
iphinde ikhombise ukuthi ukuhlanganiswa kwesifunda ngenqubo esemthethweni
yokuhweba (TP) kanye nezezimali nenqubo esemthethweni yokutshalwa kwezimali (FIP)
kuthuthukisa umphumela ohambisanayo wamabhange nezimakethe zamasheya
ekukhuleni komnotho. Isifanekiso sokukhula esiveziwe sikhombisa ukuthi ukuqinisa
imizamo yokukhuthaza ukuhlanganiswa kwesifunda kuthuthukisa ukuhambisana
phakathi kokunwetshwa kwemboni yamabhange kanye nokukhula kwemakethe
yamasheya mayelana nokuxhasa ukukhula komnotho ngezimali. Lolu cwaningo luphinde
lwabheka ukuthi izilungiselelo zesikhungo ziyithinta kanjani indlela imboni yamabhange
kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwezimakethe zamasheya. Okutholakele kukhombisa ukuthi
umthetho awushintshi uhlobo lobudlelwano, kodwa wehlisa umthelela ohambisanayo
wezimakethe zamasheya kanye nokwanda komkhakha wamabhange ekukhuleni
komnotho. Ucwaningo lusebenzise ukuthuthukiswa komkhakha wamabhange kanye
nezindlela zokuthuthukiswa kwezimakethe zamasheya ukuze kuvivinywe ukufaneleka
kokutholiwe kanye nokunquma ukuthi inhlangano iphethe. Ngakho-ke, ucwaningo
luqhube lwaphenya ngezinqumo zomkhakha wamabhange kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwezimakethe zamasheya lapho izinkomba zemboni yamasheya kanye nezamabhange
zafakwa khona njengezihlehlayo. Ukuthuthukiswa kwezimakethe zamasheya kutholwe
kunomthelela omuhle ekuthuthukisweni komkhakha wamabhange kuyilapho ukutholwa
kwezimali ezimakethe zamasheya kunomthelela omuhle emalini yezikweletu enwetshwe
amabhange emali efakwa ebhange. Lo mphumela uqinisekisa ubudlelwano
obuhambisanayo obuboniswa isifanekiso sokukhula. Ukufudukela emadolobheni
kunomphumela omuhle ekuthuthukisweni komkhakha wamabhange, ukwandiswa
kwezikweletu ezizimele kanye nokusebenza kahle komkhakha wamabhange kodwa
kunomthelela omubi ekuzinzeni komkhakha wamabhange. Ukuminyana kwabantu
kunomthelela omuhle ekwandiseni izikweletu ezizimele kanye nokuzinza komkhakha
wamabhange kuyilapho ukungalingani kunomthelela omuhle ekuthuthukisweni
komkhakha wamabhange kanye nokuzinza komkhakha wamabhange. Imiphumela
iphinde iveze ukuthi ukuthuthukiswa komkhakha wamabhange kuba nomthelela omuhle
ekuthuthukisweni kwezimakethe zamasheya kanye nokufakwa kwemali ezimakethe
zamasheya, kuyilapho izikweletu ezizimele ngamabhange emali efakwayo zithuthukisa
ukuthuthukiswa kwezimakethe zamasheya, ubukhulu bezimakethe zamasheya,
ukutholakala kwezimali kwezimakethe zamasheya kanye nokusebenza kahle
kwezimakethe zamasheya. Lesi siphetho siphinde sisekele umbono wokuthi ukukhula
komkhakha wamabhange kanye nemakethe yamasheya, kanye nobukhulu bemakethe
yamasheya kanye nesikweletu esinwetshiwe ngamabhange, konke kunomthelela
ekuthuthukisweni kwemakethe yamasheya ngokobukhulu bayo, umthamo omkhulu
womsebenzi emakethe kanye nokusebenza kahle. Lo mphumela ukhombisa ukuthi
ukuthuthukiswa komkhakha wamabhange kufaka isandla kakhulu ekuthuthukisweni kwezimakethe zamasheya uma kuqhathaniswa nomthelela wezimakethe zamasheya
emabhange. Inkululeko yabezindaba itholwe inomthelela omuhle kusayizi wemakethe
yamasheya kanye nokuqina kwemakethe yamasheya. Ukuthuthukiswa kwezimboni
ngakolunye uhlangothi kunomphumela ongemuhle kusayizi wemakethe yamasheya
kuyilapho ukuphuma ngokushesha kwemali ezweni kunomthelela ongemuhle
ekuthuthukisweni kwezimakethe zamasheya, ubukhulu bezimakethe zamasheya kanye
nokuqina kwemakethe yamasheya. Ucwaningo luphinde lwembula umthelela omuhle
wezinga lokushintshana elingaguquki elikhonjiwe ekuthuthukisweni kwezimakethe
zamasheya kanye nokusetshenziswa kwemali kwezimakethe zamasheya, kuyilapho
lubonisa ukuthi ukukhasa nokuphathwa kwemibuso kunomthelela omuhle kubukhulu
bemakethe yamasheya. Ngokuphambene nalokho, umbuso lapho imali yesizwe ihlelwe
yimakethe yokuhwabelana kolunye uhlobo lwemali kwenye ngokuhlinzekwa nokufunwa
unomthelela omubi ekuthuthukisweni kwezimakethe zamasheya kanye nokufakwa
kwemali ezimakethe zamasheya. Okutholakele futhi kukhombisa ukuthi umkhakha
wamabhange ku-SADC, nakuba uzinzile, usengakathuthukiswa ngokugcwele futhi
ubonakala ngokwandiswa okuphansi kwezikweletu kanye nokungasebenzi kahle.
Izimakethe zamasheya nazo zitholwe zingathuthukisiwe ngokugcwele zibonakala
ngosayizi omncane, ukuthengwa kwezimali okuphansi kanye namazinga aphansi
okusebenza kahle. Lokhu okutholakele kuphakamisa ukuthi ukukhula kwemboni
yamabhange kanye nemakethe yamasheya kuyahambisana ekuhlinzekeni ngemali
yokwandisa umnotho, nokuthi ukuhlanganiswa kwesifunda kuqinisa lobu budlelwano
obuhambisanayo. Umthetho, nokho, uyawunciphisa lo mphumela ohambisanayo.
Ukwenza ngcono ukuhambisana phakathi kokukhula komkhakha wamabhange kanye nokukhula kwemakethe yamasheya ekuhlinzekeni ngezimali zokukhula komnotho,
abakhi benqubomgomo kufanele bagxile ekukhuthazeni ukuhlanganiswa kwesifunda
kanye nokuthuthukisa umthetho. Ukwandiswa komkhakha wamabhange kutholakale
ukuthi kunomthelela omuhle kakhulu ekuthuthukisweni kwezimakethe zamasheya
kunangokuphambene. Ngakho-ke, kufanele bagxilise imizamo yabo ekuthuthukiseni
ukwandiswa kwemali mboleko nokusebenza kahle kule ndawo.
Thuto e batlisisitse tswalano mahareng a ntshetsopele ya lekala la dibanka le
ntshetsopele ya mebaraka ya setoko tsa Borwa ba Afrika, ho tsepamisitswe haholo ho
Ditjhaba tse Ntshetswangpele tsa Borwa ba Afrika (SADC). Ho sebediswa mokgwa o
bonahalang o sa amaneng (SUR) le mokgwa o akaretsang wa nako (SGMM) mabapi le
dintlha tsa pokello tse tswang dinaheng tse robong tsa SADC, diphetho tsa thuto di
bontsha hore dibanka le mebaraka ya matsete di a tlatsana ho tshehetsa kgolo ya moruo
sebakeng seo.Diphetho di boetse di bontsha hore kopanyo ya dibaka ka prothokholo ya
kgwebo (TP) le prothokholo ya ditjhelete le matsete (FIP) e ntlafatsa bokgoni ba ho tlisa
sephetho se tlatselletsang sa dibanka le dimmaraka tsa thekiso kgolong ya moruo.
Mohlala wa kgolo o bontshitsweng o bontsha hore ho matlafatsa matsapa a ho
kgothaletsa kopanyo ya lebatowa ho ntlafatsa tlatsetso dipakeng tsa katoloso ya indasteri
ya dibanka le kgolo ya mmaraka wa setoko mabapi le ho tshehetsa kgolo ya moruo ka
ditjhelete. Thuto ena e boetse ya sheba hore na maemo a mekgatlo a ama jwang indasteri
ya dibanka le ntshetsopele ya mmaraka wa matsete. Diphumano di bontsha hore molao
ha o fetole sebopeho sa dikamano, empa o fokotsa tshusumetso e tlatsanang ya
mmaraka wa thekiso le keketseho ya lekala la dibanka kgolong ya moruo. Thuto e
sebedisitse ntshetsopele ya lekala la dibanka le mehlala ya ntshetsopele ya mmaraka wa
setoko ho leka bonnete ba diphumano le ho fumana hore na ho kopana ho a tsamaelana.
Ka hona, thuto e ile ya tswela pele ho batlisisa dintlha tse kgethollang lekala la dibanka
le ntshetsopele ya mmaraka wa setoko moo matshwao a mmaraka a setoko le a dibanka
a kenyelleditsweng e le phetoho e hlalosang.
Ntshetsopele ya mmaraka wa setoko e fumanwe e na le tshusumetso e ntle ho
ntshetsopele ya lekala la dibanka ha ho tsetelwa kgwebong ho mmaraka wa setoko e
fumanwa e e na le tshusumetso e ntle ho mokitlane o atolositsweng ke dibanka tsa
ditjhelete tsa depositi. Sephetho sena se tiisa kamano e tlatsanang e bontshitsweng ke
mohlala wa kgolo.Ho aha ditoropong ho na le bokgoni ba ho tlisa sephetho se setle
ntshetsopeleng ya lekala la dibanka, katoloso ya mekitlane ya poraefete le katleho ya
lekala la dibanka empa e na le tshusumetso e mpe botsitsong ba lekala la dibanka. Palo
ya baahi e na le tshusumetso e ntle katolosong ya mekitlane ya poraefete le botsitsong
ba lekala la dlibanka ha ho se lekane ho susumetsa ntshetsopele ya lekala la dibanka le
botsitso ba lekala la dibanka. Diphetho di boetse di senola hore ntshetsopele ya lekala la
dibanka e na le tshusumetso e ntle ho ntshetsopele ya mmaraka wa setoko le ho tsetela
mmarakeng wa setoko, ha mekitlane ya poraefete ka dibanka tsa depositi e matlafatsa
ntshetsopele ya mmaraka wa setoko, boholo ba mmaraka wa setoko,thekiso ya setoko
le katleho ya mmaraka wa setoko.Qeto ena e boetse e tshehetsa mohopolo wa hore
kgolo ya lefapha la dibanka le mmaraka wa setoko, hammoho le boholo ba mmaraka wa
setoko le mekitlane e atolositsweng ke dibanka, kaofela di kenya letsoho ntshetsopeleng
ya mmaraka wa setoko ho latela boholo ba ona, thekiso ya setoko le bokgoni. Sephetho
sena se bontsha hore ntshetsopele ya lekala la dibanka e kenya letsoho haholo
ntshetsopeleng ya mebaraka ya thekiso ha e bapiswa le bokgoni ba ho tlisa sephetho ya
mmaraka wa setoko dibankeng.Tokoloho ya baphatlalatsi e ile ya fumanwa e ama boholo
ba mmaraka wa setoko le thekiso ya mmaraka wa setoko. Ntshetsopele ya diindasteri ka
lehlakoreng le leng e na le bokgoni ba ho tlisa sephetho se sebe ho boholo ba mmaraka
wa setoko ha ho tswa ha tjhelete naheng ho na le tshusumetso e mpe ho ntshetsopele ya mmaraka wa setoko, boholo ba mmaraka le ho rekiswa ha maraka wa setoko.Thuto
ena e boetse bo sibollotse bokgoni ba ho tlisa sephetho se setle sa puso ya sekgahla sa
phapanyetsano ho ntshetsopele ya mmaraka wa setoko le ho tsetela mmarakeng wa
setoko, ha e ntse e bontsha hore mebuso e kgasang le e laolwang e na le tshusumetso
e ntle ho boholo ba mmaraka wa setoko. Ho fapana le hoo, puso e phaphametseng e na
le bokgoni ba ho tlisa sephetho se sebe ho ntshetsopele ya mmaraka wa setoko le ho
tsetela mmarakeng. Diphumano di boetse di bontsha hore lekala la dibanka ka hara
SADC, leha le tsitsitse, le ntse le fokola mme le tsebahala ka katoloso e tlase ya mekitlane
le ho se sebetse hantle ho hoholo. Dimmaraka tsa disetoko le tsona di ile tsa fumanwa di
sa ntlafatswe tse kgethollwang ka boholo bo fokolang, thekiso ya thepa le maemo a tlaase
a tshebetso.Diphumano tsena di fana ka maikutlo a hore ho phahama ha indasteri ya
dibanka le mmaraka wa setoko di a tlatselletsana ka ho fana ka tjhelete bakeng sa
katoloso ya moruo, le hore kopanyo ya dibaka e matlafatsa kamano ena e tlatselletsang.
Molao, leha ho le jwalo, o fokotsa bokgoni ba ho tlisa sephetho sena se tlatsetsang. Ho
ntlafatsa tlatsetso dipakeng tsa kgolo ya lekala la dibanka le kgolo ya mmaraka wa setoko
molemong wa ho fana ka ditjhelete bakeng sa kgolo ya moruo, baetsi ba melawana ba
lokela ho tsepamisa maikutlo ho kgothaletseng kopanyo ya dibaka le ho matlafatsa
molao.Katoloso ya lekala la dibanka e fumanwe e na le kgahlamelo e hodimo e ntle
ntshetsopeleng ya mmaraka wa setoko ho feta ka tsela e fapaneng. Ka hona, ba lokela
ho tsepamisa boiteko ba bona ho ntlafatsa katoloso ya mokoloto le katleho sebakeng
sena.
