The interactions between sectoral credit allocation decisions and economic growth : an empirical study of Zimbabwe

Abstract

Despite policy measures aimed at improving the performance of commercial banks and their contribution to economic growth, little progress has been made in reviving the Zimbabwean economy. The effective function of banking as an essential sector in Zimbabwe is crucial to the promotion of the economic growth of the country. To achieve this objective, the study used agriculture, manufacturing, mining, individuals, finance and other sectors as independent variables using monthly data. The previous empirical examination of the connection of the relationship is anchored on aggregate economic growth (proxied GDP), on the assumption that each economic sector responds similarly to GDP. However, the degree of credit utilisation and productivity of credit may not homogeneously remain the same across sectors. Therefore, this study seeks to contribute to the literature by examining the interaction between bank lending through sectoral credit allocation (SCA) and economic growth. The study employed the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) to test for stationarity in the time series. Johansen cointegration, the vector autoregressive model and the vector error correction model were used to identify the long-run and short-run dynamics among variables. The Granger causality test was used to determine the causal direction. In the context of this study, monthly time series data were used to examine the interaction between sectors of the economy and economic growth in Zimbabwe during the period 2010–2021. The study used secondary data from the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ). As a result, ADF has been enhanced. The Johansen cointegration test, on the other hand, demonstrated a long-run link between the variables. Credit allocation to the agriculture, industrial, and mining sectors grew the economy, but credit allocation to individuals, the banking industry, and other sectors did not. The findings imply that policymakers, government, and financial regulators must promote financial allocation to agriculture, mining and manufacturing as critical for economic transformation. The banks must ensure that more credits flow to the mining, manufacturing, and agricultural sectors to promote growth for all economic sectors. Understanding the relationship between SCA and economic growth is critical, as it informs authorities to properly allocate resources and obtain proportionate returns.

Naphezu kwezinyathelo zengqubomgomo ezihlose ukuthuthukisa ukusebenza kwamabhange ebhizinisi kanye negalelo lawo ekukhuleni komnotho, incane inqubekelaphambili eseyenziwe ekuvuseleleni umnotho weZimbabwe. Ukusebenza kahle kwamabhange njengomkhakha obalulekile eZimbabwe kubalulekile ekukhuthazeni ukukhula komnotho wezwe. Ukufeza le nhloso, ucwaningo lusebenzise ezolimo, ezokukhiqiza, ezezimayini, abantu ngabanye, ezezimali kanye neminye imikhakha njengokuguquguquka okuzimele kusetshenziswa imininingwane yanyanga zonke. Ukuhlolwa kwangaphambilini kobuhlakani bokuxhunywa kobudlelwano kusekelwe ekukhuleni komnotho okuhlanganisiwe (igunya le-GDP lokusebenzela omunye), kucatshangwa ukuthi umkhakha wezomnotho ngamunye uphendula ngendlela efanayo kwi-GDP. Kodwa-ke, izinga lokusetshenziswa kwamanani akweletwayo kanye nokukhiqiza kwesikweletu kungenzeka kungahlali ngokufanayo kuzo zonke izigaba. Ngakho-ke, lolu cwaningo luhlose ukufaka isandla emibhalweni ngokuhlola ukusebenzisana phakathi kokubolekwa kwebhange ngokusebenzisa ukwabiwa kwezezimali ngokwemikhakha (SCA) kanye nokukhula komnotho. Ucwaningo lusebenzise ukuhlola ukuthi impande yeyunithi ikhona kusampula yochungechunge lwesikhathi (ADF) ukuze ihlole ukuma ochungechungeni lwesikhathi. Indlela yokunquma ukuthi uchungechunge lwesikhathi oluthathu noma ngaphezulu luhlanganisiwe, isilinganiso esisetshenziselwa uchungechunge lwesikhathi esibandakanya amanani aguquguqukayo amabili noma ngaphezulu, kanye nesilinganiso esiguquguqukayo esimile ekwehlukeni kwaso kusetshenziswe ukuhlonza amandla esikhathi eside kanye nesikhathi esifushane phakathi kokuguquguqukayo.

Ukuhlolwa komqondo wezibalo wembangela osuselwe ekubikezelweni kwasetshenziswa ukuze kutholwe isiqondiso sembangela. Kulolu cwaningo, imininingwane yochungechunge lwesikhathi lwanyanga zonke yasetshenziswa ukuhlola ukuxhumana phakathi kwemikhakha yomnotho nokukhula komnotho eZimbabwe phakathi nesikhathi sika-2010-2021. Lolu cwaningo belusebenzisa imininingwane yesibili evela ebhanga elikhulu lezwekazi laseZimbabwe (RBZ). Ngenxa yalokho, i-ADF iye yathuthukiswa. Ukuhlolwa kokunquma ukuthi uchungechunge lwesikhathi oluthathu noma ngaphezulu luhlanganisiwe, ngakolunye uhlangothi, kubonise ukuxhumana okuhlala isikhathi eside phakathi kokuguquguqukayo. Ukwabiwa kwezikweletu emkhakheni wezolimo, izimboni, kanye nezimayini kwawukhulisa umnotho, kodwa ukwabiwa kwezikweletu kubantu ngabanye, imboni yamabhange, neminye imikhakha akuzange kube njalo. Imiphumela isho ukuthi abenzi bezinqubomgomo, uhulumeni, nabalawuli bezezimali kumele bakhuthaze ukwabiwa kwezimali kwezolimo, ezezimayini nezokukhiqiza njengento ebalulekile ekuguquleni umnotho. Amabhange kumele aqinisekise ukuthi izikweletu eziningi ziyangena emkhakheni wezimayini, wezokukhiqiza kanye nowezolimo ukuze kuthuthukiswe ukukhula kwayo yonke imikhakha yezomnotho. Ukuqonda ubudlelwano phakathi kwe-SCA nokukhula komnotho kubalulekile, njengoba kuzisa iziphathimandla ukuthi zabele izinsiza ngendlela efanele futhi zithole izinzuzo ezilinganayo.

Leha hona le mehato ya dipholisi e reretsweng ho ntlafatsa tshebetso ya dibanka tsa kgwebo le tlatsetso ya tsona kgolong ya moruo, ho bile le kgatelopele e nyane haholo tsosolosong ya moruo wa Zimbabwe. Tshebetso e ntle ya ho banka jwalo ka lekala la bohlokwa Zimbabwe e bohlokwahadi ntlafatsong ya kgolo ya moruo wa naha. Ho fihlella maikemisetso ana, phuputso e sebedisitse temo, tlhahiso, dimmaene, batho ka bo mong, ditjhelete le makala a mang jwalo ka ditshupo tse ikemetseng tsa ho fapana ka tshebediso ya datha ya kgwedi le kgwedi. Tlhahlobo e fetileng e itshetlehileng hodima bopaki ya kgokahano ya kamano e thehilwe hodima kgolo ya moruo ya palohare (GDP e emetsweng), ka tumelo ya hore lekala ka leng la moruo le arabela ka tsela e tshwanang ho GDP. Leha ho le jwalo, botebo ba tshebediso ya mokitlane le tlhahiso ya mokitlane di kanna tsa se dule di tshwana ho pharalla le makala. Kahoo, phuputso ena e batla ho tlatselletsa ho dingolwa ka ho hlahloba kamano pakeng tsa kadimo tsa dibanka ho ya kabo ya mokitlane ka makala (SCA) le kgolo ya moruo. Phuputso e sebedisitse Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) ho etsa teko ya ho se fetohe letotong la nako. Johansen cointegration, e leng mmotlolo wa vector autoregressive le mmotlolo wa tokiso ya phoso ya vector di sebedisitswe ho hlwaya dintlha tsa nako e telele le tsa nako e kgutshwane hara diphaphano. Teko ya Granger causality e sebedisitwe ho fumana tsela ya lebaka. Sebakeng sa phuputso ena, ho sebedisitswe data ya nako ya letoto la kgwedi le kgwedi ho hlahloba kamano pakeng tsa makala a moruo le kgolo ya moruo Zimbabwe pakeng tsa 2010–2021. Phuputso e sebedisitse datha ya bobedi ho tswa ho Banka Resefe ya Zimbabwe (RBZ). Ka tsela eo, ADF e ntlafaditswe.

Teko ya Johansen cointegration, ka lehlakoreng le leng, e bontshitse kgokahano ya nako e telele pakeng tsa diphaphano. Kabo ya mokitlane ho makala a temo, tlhahiso, le dimmaene e hodisitse moruo, empa kabo ya mokitlane ho batho ka bo mong, indasteri ya dibanka, le makala a mang ha e ya hodisa moruo. Diphetho di supa hore baetsi ba melawana, mmuso le balaodi ba ditjhelete ba tlameha ho ntlafatsa kabo ya ditjhelete ho tsa temo, dimmaene le tlhahiso hobane di bohlokwa bakeng sa phetoho ya moruo. Dibanka di lokela ho netefatsa hore mokitlane o eketsehileng o leba ho makala a dimmaene, tlhahiso, le temo e le ho ntlafatsa kgolo bakeng sa makala ohle a moruo. Ho utlwisisa kamano pakeng tsa SCA le kgolo ya moruo ho bohlokwa, hobane e lebisa ho kabo e nepahetseng ya dihlahiswa le disebediswa ke ba ikarabellang le ho phumano ya dipoello tse loketseng.