The thesis aimed to investigate the effect of earnings volatility, government borrowing and liquidity on the capital structure of financial firms utilising a sample of registered commercial banks in South Africa from 2012 to 2021. Despite the extensive literature on this association, few prominent researchers have studied this phenomenon in the banking sector. Applying the generalised method of moments model, the study found a positive but significant relationship between earnings volatility and capital structure measured by total debt ratio. This suggests that the higher the volatility, the higher the debt. On the contrary, but in line with the theoretical prediction, the study finds a negative but significant relationship between earnings volatility and long-term debt ratio and short-term ratio. This implies that firms with fluctuating earnings may limit their lending capacity since raising debt formally commits the firm to make borrowing obligations. The study also established a positive but significant relationship between government borrowing and the capital structure. Contrary to the crowding-out effects detects, results revealed a positive but significant relationship between government borrowing and capital structure. The crowding-in effect better explains these results, where government borrowing stimulates the local market, motivating banks to borrow more. The results imply that government borrowing does not stifle the private sector. Therefore, the South African government should not worry about crowding out effects. If government borrowing is earmarked for the productive sector, this will stimulate the economy and increase the gross domestic product. The results of the study revealed a positive but significant relationship between the current ratio and capital structure. The study also shows a positive and significant link between liquidity coverage ratio and total debt ratio. Yet, a positive but insignificant relationship exists between liquidity coverage ratio and short-term ratio. There was a negative but insignificant link between liquidity coverage ratio and long-term debt ratio. The study indicated a positive but significant nexus between the bank liquidity mismatches index. This implies that banks can still borrow despite worrying about liquidity as a there is positive between bank liquidity mismatches index and capital structure. The result of the study also shows a positive and significant link between COVID-19 and total debt ratio. However, there is a negative but significant link between COVID-19 and long-term debt ratio. The study shows a negative but insignificant association between COVID-19 and short-term ratio. Future research should test the cointegrating and causality relationship between government borrowing and bank capital structure. Also, given that the banking sector is constrained by Basel III's Capital adequacy requirement, controlling for this factor is critical in future research.
Our main contribution was investigating how the bank liquidity mismatches index (BLMI) influences capital structure. The bank liquidity mismatch index is a new measure of liquidity that incorporates three dimensions: the funding side, the asset side, and the liquidity spiral; this has never been tested before, so that is one of our main contributions. Furthermore, as indicated, we also looked at the government borrowing effect on a capital structure and whether it affected the crowding-in effect or the crowding-out effect. The results even showed that contrary to theory, actual government borrowing in South Africa has a crowding-in effect.
Le thisisi ibijolise ekuphandeni isiphumo sokuguquguquka kwemivuzo, ukuboleka kukarhulumente kunye nokuhlawulwa kwamatyala kwisakhiwo semali seenkampani zemali, isebenzisa isivandlakanyi seebhanki zorhwebo ezibhalisiweyo eMzantsi Afrika ukususela ngo2012 ukuya ku2021. Nangona kukho uncwadi olubanzi kolu nxulumano, bambalwa abaphandi abadumileyo abaye baphanda le meko kwicandelo lebhanki. Olu phando lufumanise ubudlelwane obulungileyo nobubalulekileyo phakathi kokuguquguquka kwemivuzo kunye nesakhiwo semali esilinganiswe ngomlinganiselo opheleleyo wamatyala ngokusebenzisa indlela eqhelekileyo yemodeli yamaxesha amafutshane (moments model). Oku kubonisa ukuba apho ukuguquguquka kuphezulu, kulapho ityala liphezulu khona. Ngokwahlukileyo
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koko, kodwa ngokuhambelana noqikelelo lwethiyori, olu ophando lufumanisa ubudlelwane obungalunganga kodwa obubalulekileyo phakathi kokuguquguquka kwemivuzo kunye nomlinganiselo wamatyala exesha elide kunye nomlinganiselo wexesha elifutshane. Oku kuthetha ukuba amashishini anomvuzo oguquguqukayo anokunciphisa ukubolekisa kwawo nanjengoko ukunyusa ityala ngokusesikweni kubophelela ishishini ukuba lenze izibophelelo zokubolekisa. Uphando luphinde labonisa ubudlelwane obulungileyo nobubalulekileyo phakathi kokuboleka kukarhulumente kunye nesakhiwo semali. Ngokwahlukileyo kwiziphumo zokungafezeki okanye zokusilela kwenkcitho yotyalomali yecandelo labucala enciphayo ngenxa yokwanda kokuboleka kukarhulumente kurhwebo lweengxowamali ezibolekisayo (eyaziwa ngokuba yicrowding-out), iziphumo zibonise ubudlelwane obulungileyo nobubalulekileyo phakathi kokuboleka kukarhulumente kunye nesakhiwo semali. Isiphumo senkcitho ephezulu karhulumente ekhuthaza amashishini ukuba atyale imali eninzi (eyaziwa ngokuba yicrowding-in) sizichaza ngcono ezi ziphumo, apho ukuboleka kukarhulumente kuvuselela urhwebo lwasekhaya, kukhuthaza iibhanki ukuba zibolekise ngaphezulu. Iziphumo zibonisa ukuba ukuboleka kukarhulumente akuthinteli icandelo labucala. Ngoko ke, urhulumente woMzantsi Afrika makangaxhalabi ngeziphumo zenkcitho yotyalomali yecandelo labucala enciphayo ngenxa yokwanda kokuboleka kukarhulumente kurhwebo lweengxowamali ezibolekisayo (crowding-out). Oku kuya kuvuselela uqoqosho kwaye kwandise imveliso epheleleyo yonyaka yelizwe, ukuba ukuboleka kukarhulumente kubekelwe ecaleni kwicandelo lemveliso. Iziphumo zophando zibonise ubudlelwane obulungileyo nobubalulekileyo phakathi komlinganiselo wangoku kunye nesakhiwo semali. Olu phando lukwabonisa unxibelelwano olulungileyo nolubalulekileyo phakathi komlinganiselo wokubandakanywa kokuhlawulwa kwamatyala kunye nomlinganiselo opheleleyo wamatyala. Ukanti, ubudlelwane obulungileyo kodwa obungabalulekanga bukhona phakathi komlinganiselo wokubandakanywa kokuhlawulwa kwamatyala kunye nomlinganiselo wexesha elifutshane. Kubekho unxibelelwano olungalunganga kodwa olungabalulekanga phakathi komlinganiselo okubandakanywa kokuhlawulwa kwamatyala kunye nomlinganiselo wamatyala exesha elide. Uphando lubonise unxibelelwano olulungileyo nolubalulekileyo phakathi kwesalathisi sokungangqinelani kokubhatalwa kwamatyala ebhanki (bank liquidity mismatches index). Oku kuthetha ukuba iibhanki zisenokubolekisa nangona zixhalabile malunga nokubhathalwa kwamatyala nanjengoko kukho okulungileyo phakathi kwesalathisi sokungangqinelani kokubhatalwa kwamatyala ebhanki kunye nesakhiwo semali. Isiphumo sophando sikwabonisa unxibelelwano olulungileyo nolubalulekileyo phakathi kweCOVID-19 kunye nomlinganiselo wamatyala ewonke. Nangona kunjalo, kukho unxibelelwano olungalunganga kodwa olubalulekileyo phakathi kweCOVID-19 kunye nomlinganiselo wamatyala exesha elide. Olu phando lubonisa unxulumano olungalunganga nolungabalulekanga phakathi kweCOVID-19 kunye nomlinganiselo wexesha elifutshane. Uphando lwexesha elizayo kufuneka luvavanye ubudlelwane obude kunye nobufutshane phakathi kwezi nkalo zimbini kunye nobudlelwane obubonisa isiphumo sento ethile ngenxa yenye into ethile okanye ifuthe lazo zombini enye kwenye (cointegrating and causality relationship), phakathi kokuboleka kukarhulumente kunye nesakhiwo semali sebhanki. Kwakhona, nanjengokuba icandelo lebhanki lithintelwa yimfuneko yokwaneliseka yeBasel III's Capital, ukulawula le mpembelelo kubalulekile kuphando lwexesha elizayo.
Igalelo lethu eliphambili ibikukuphanda indlela isalathisi sokungangqinelani kokubhatalwa kwamatyala ebhanki ibank liquidity mismatches index (BLMI) esichaphazela ngayo isakhiwo semali. Isalathisi sokungangqinelani kokubhatalwa kwamatyala ngumlinganiselo omtsha wokungabhatalwa kwamatyala obandakanya iinkalo ezintathu: icala lenkxasomali, icala lezixhobo zokusebenza, kunye nemeko apho ukuhla kwamaxabiso ezixhobo zokusebenza kunokukhuthaza iibhanki ukuba zinciphise ukunikezelwa kwamatyala, okuye kubangele ukuhla ngakumbi kwamaxabiso ezixhobo zokusebenza (okwaziwa ngokuba yiliquidity spiral); oku akuzange kwavavanywa ngaphambili, ngoko ke eli lelinye igalelo lethu eliphambili. Ngaphezu koko, nanjengoko kubonisiwe, siphinde sajonga isiphumo sokuboleka kukarhulumente kwisakhiwo semali nokuba sisichaphazela njani isiphumo senkcitho ephezulu karhulumente ekhuthaza amashishini ukuba atyale imali eninzi (crowding-in effect) okanye isiphumo senkcitho yotyalomali yecandelo labucala enciphayo ngenxa yokwanda kokuboleka kukarhulumente kurhwebo lweengxowamali ezibolekisayo (crowding-out effect). Iziphumo ziye zabonisa ukuba ngokuchasene nethiyori, ukuboleka ngokwenene kukarhulumente eMzantsi Afrika kunesiphumo senkcitho ephezulu karhulumente ekhuthaza amashishini ukuba atyale imali eninzi.
Sengwalwanyakišišo se be se ikemišeditše go nyakišiša ka ga seabe sa go ba kotsing ga letseno, go adima ditšhelete ga mmušo le go phuhlama ga sebopego sa letlotlo la dikhamphani tša ditšhelete ka go šomiša sampole ya dipanka tša kgwebo tše di ngwadišitšwego ka Afrika Borwa go thoma ka 2012 go fihla ka 2021.Ka ntle ga dingwalwa tše ntši ka ga seemo se, ke fela banyakišiši ba mmalwa ba go tsebega bao ba nyakišišitšego ka maemo a ka lekaleng la dipanka. Ka go diriša mokgwakakaretšo wa mekgwa ya sebjalebjale, dinyakišišo di hweditše gore go na le kamano ye kaone eupša ye bohlokwa magareng ga go ba kotsing ga letseno le sebopego sa letlotlo ge di elwa ka kelo ya palomoka ya sekoloto. Se se šišinya gore ge letseno le eba kotsing kudu, dikoloto di ba godimo. Go fapana le se, eupša go sepelelana le kakanyo ya teori, dinyakišišo di hwetša kamano ye e sa kgahlišego eupša ye bohlokwa magareng ga go ba kotsing ga letseno le kelo ya sekolo ya lebaka le letelele le kelo ya lebaka le lekopana. Se se ra gore dikhamphani tšeo di nago le letseno la go fetogafetoga di ka fokotša maatla a tšona a kadimo ya ditšhelete ka ge go oketša dikoloto ka semmušo go gapeletša khamphani yeo go dira ditlamego tša dikadimo. Dinyakišišo gape di utollotše gore go na le kamano ye kaone eupša ye bohlokwa magareng ga kadimo ya mmušo le sebopego sa letlotlo. Go fapana le dikutollo tša diabe tša go beeletša ga mmušo, dipoelo di utollotše gore go a le kamano ye kaone eupša ye bohlokwa magareng ga kadimo ya mmušo le sebopego sa letlotlo. Seabe sa go beeletša ga mmušo ka mebarakeng go hlaloša bokaone dipoelo tše, fao kadimo ya mmušo e hlohleletšago mmaraka wa ka nageng, fao go hlohleletšago dipanka go adima kudu. Dipoelo di laetša gore kadimo ya mmušo ga e gatelele lekala la phraebete. Ka fao, mmušo wa Afrika Borwa ga se wa swanela go tshwenyega ka go beeletša ga mmušo ka mebarakeng. Ge e le gore kadimo ya mmušo e ikemišeditše gore go be le lekala la go ba le tšweletšo, se se tla hlohleletša ekonomi le go oketša palomoka ya letseno la ka nageng. Dipoelo tša dinyakišišo di utollotše gore go na le kamano ye kaone eupša ye bohlokwa magareng ga kelo ya bjale le sebopego sa letlotlo.Dinyakišišo di laeditše gape gore go na le kamano ye kaone le ye bohlokwa magareng ga kelo ka kakaretšo ya go phuhlama ga dikgwebo le kelo ya palomoka ya dikoloto. Le ge go le bjale, kamano ye kaone eupša ye bohlokwa e gona magarteng ga kelo ya kakaretšo ya go phuhlama ga dikgwebo le kelo ya lebaka le lekopana. Go bile le kamano ye e sego ya loka eupša ye e sego ye bohlokwa magareng ga kelo ya kakaretšo ya go phuhlama ga dikgwebo le kelo ya dikoloto ya lebaka le letelele. Dinyakišišo di laeditše kgokagano ye kaone eupša ye bohlokwa magareng ga dipalopalo tša go se sepelelane ga go phuhlama ga dipanka. Se se ra gore dipanka di ka tšwela pele go adima ditšhelete ka ntle le go tshwenyega ka ga go phuhlama ga tšona ka ge go na le kamano ye kaone magareng ga dipalopalo tša go se sepelelane ga go phuhlama ga dipanka le sebopego sa letlotlo. Dipoelo tša dinyakišišo le tšona di aletša gore go na le kamano ye kaone le ye bohlokwa magareng ga COVID-19 le palomoka ya kelo ya dikoloto. Le ge go le bjale, go na le kamano ye e sego ya loka eupša ye bohlokwa magareng ga COVID-19 le kelo ya dikoloto ya lebaka le letelele. Dinyakišišo di laetša gore go na le kamano ye e sego ya loka eupša le ye e sego ye bohlokwa magareng ga COVID-19 le kelo ya lebaka le lekopana. Dinyakišišo tša ka moso di swanetše go leka kamano ya mabakanako a go se swane le ye e sego ya thwii magareng ga kadimo ya mmušo le sebopego sa letlotlo la panka. Gape, ka ge lekala la dipanka le iletšwa ke nyakego ya go ba maleba ga Letlotlo go ya ka Basel III, go laola lebaka le go bohlokwa ka dinyakišišong tša ka moso.
Seabe sa rena se segolo e bile go nyakišiša ka fao dipalopalo tša go se sepelelane ga go phuhlama ga dipanka (BLMI) go huetšago sebopego sa letlotlo. dipalopalo tša go se sepelelane ga go phuhlama ga dipanka ke kelo ye mpsha ya go phuhlama ga dipanka yeo e akaretšago mahlakore a mararo: lehlakore la thušo ya ditšhelete, lehlakore la dithoto, le lebakanako la kamano ya go phuhlama; se ga se sa ka sa lekwa mo nakong ye e fetilego, gore e be ye nngwe ya diabe tša rena tše kgolo. Godimo ga fao, ka ge go laeditšwe, re lebeletše gape le sabe sa kadimo ya mmušo go sebopego sa letlotlo le ge eba e amile go se beeletše ga mmušo goba go beeletša ga mmušo ka mebarakeng. Dipoelo di tloga di laeditše gore go fapana le teori, kadimo ya mmušo ya mmakgonthe ka Afrika Borwa e na le seabe sa go beeletše ga mmušo.
