Nanotechnology revolutionised industrialisation and economic development and is predicted to drive the next Schumpeterian wave of economic growth. Most countries are strategically positioning themselves to benefit from nanotechnology, being a general-purpose technology. Hence, to ensure prudent use of limited resources, countries must select and focus on key strategic nanotechnology research areas that have the potential to generate competitiveness and return on investment. However, no model currently exists on critical success factors for nanotechnology innovation management. Also, there is a lack of effective nanotechnology-specific foresight models. Furthermore, although nanotechnology foresight relates to the Multi-criteria Decision Making (MCDM) analysis, the use of MCDM methods in a foresight context has not been thoroughly explored yet.
This research developed the Nanotechnology Innovation Diamond, a model for successful nanoscience research and development. The model was validated using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) from a survey of 167 nanotechnology experts from South Africa. The results indicated that, at a 95% confidence level, the model satisfied the minimum CFA model fit requirements. The research further developed a nanotechnology-specific foresight model that integrates the Nanotechnology Innovation Diamond, technology mining, scientometrics, and the Analytical Hierarchical Process Multi-criteria Decision Making (AHP-MCDM) model.
The AHP-MCDM foresight model was empirically tested in South Africa. The results showed that South Africa’s nanotechnology publications grew exponentially from 68 papers in 2000 to 1 672 in 2019, representing an increase of 2 459%. Compared to the other BRICS countries, namely, Brazil, Russia, India, and China, South Africa has the lowest nanotechnology productivity, scoring an activity index of 0.68. Universities are the most prominent publishers on nanotechnology, while the private sector has produced few publications. Only 48 patents were identified compared to 11 265 publications, and a meagre 3.5% of papers were found to report on nano-enabled products. This lack of reporting on nano-enabled products can negatively impact the commercialisation of nanotechnology. The top collaborating countries, top researchers, top institutions, and nanotechnology economic hubs are reported in this study. The key strategic research areas identified for South Africa include nanomaterials, nano-photoluminescence and optics, nanomedicine, nanocatalysis, nanoelectronics, nanobiotechnology, and energy. The results were benchmarked using an expert-survey foresight method, which gave 70% similar priority fields of research. The research contributes to the discourse on nanotechnology innovation management, technology-specific foresight methods, nanotechnology-specific foresight methods, and the utilisation of quantitative tools in foresight.
Nanotegnologie het ’n omwenteling in industrialisering en ekonomiese ontwikkeling teweeggebring en daar word voorspel dat dit die volgende Schumpeterse golf van ekonomiese groei sal aandryf. Die meeste lande is besig om hulself strategies te posisioneer om uit nanotegnologie voordeel te trek, aangesien dit ’n meerdoelige tegnologie is. Om dus verstandige gebruik van beperkte hulpbronne te verseker, moet lande strategiese sleutelnavorsingsareas in nanotegnologie wat die potensiaal het om mededingendheid en opbrengs op belegging te genereer, kies en daarop fokus. Daar bestaan egter nie op die oomblik ’n model ten opsigte van kritiese suksesfaktore vir nanotegnologie-innovering-bestuur nie. Boonop is daar ’n tekort aan doeltreffende nanotegnologie-spesifieke toekomsbeplanningsmodelle. Hoewel toekomsbeplanning vir nanotegnologie verband hou met die Multi-criteria Decision Making (MCDM)-ontleding, is die gebruik van MCDM-metodes in ’n toekomsbeplanning-konteks nog nie behoorlik ondersoek nie.
In hierdie navorsing is die Nanotechnology Innovation Diamond ontwikkel – ’n model vir suksesvolle nanowetenskap-navorsing en -ontwikkeling. Om die geldigheid van die model te bepaal, is bevestigende faktorontleding (CFA) van ’n opname onder 167 nanotegnologiekundiges van Suid-Afrika gebruik. Die resultate het aangetoon dat die model aan die minimum CFA-modelgeskiktheidvereistes voldoen het, met ’n 95%-vertroubaarheidsvlak. Verder het die navorsing ’n nanotegnologie-spesifieke toekomsbeplanningsmodel ontwikkel wat die Nanotechnology Innovation Diamond, tegnologie-ontginning, scientometrie, en die Analytical Hierarchical Process Multi-criteria Decision Making (AHP-MCDM) -model integreer.
Die AHP-MCDM-toekomsbeplanningsmodel is empiries getoets in Suid-Afrika. Die resultate het getoon dat Suid-Afrika se nanotegnologie-publikasies eksponensieel gegroei het van 68 artikels in 2000 tot 1 672 in 2019 – dit verteenwoordig ’n toename van 2 459%. In vergelyking met die ander BRICS-lande, naamlik Brasilië, Rusland, Indië, en China, het Suid-Afrika die laagste syfer ten opsigte van nanotegnologie- produktiwiteit, met ’n bedrywigheidsindekssyfer van 0.68. Universiteite is die mees prominente uitgewers wanneer dit by nanotegnologie kom, terwyl die private sektor ’n paar publikasies opgelewer het. Slegs 48 patente is geïdentifiseer in vergelyking met 11 265 publikasies, en daar is bevind dat ’n skamele 3.5% van die artikels oor nano-geaktiveerde produkte verslag doen. Hierdie gebrek aan verslagdoening oor nano-geaktiveerde produkte kan ’n negatiewe uitwerking op die kommersialisering van nanotegnologie hê. In hierdie studie word verslag gedoen oor die lande, navorsers, instansies, en nanotegnologie- ekonomiese middelpunte wat die voortou neem. Die strategiese sleutelnavorsingsareas wat vir Suid-Afrika geïdentifiseer is, sluit nanomateriale, nano-fotoluminessensie en optika, nanomedisyne, nanokatalise, nano-elektronika, nanobiotegnologie, en energie in. Die resultate is genormeer met behulp van ’n kundige-opname-toekomsbeplanningsmetode, wat 70% soortgelyke-prioriteit-navorsingsvelde gelewer het. Die navorsing dra by tot die gesprekvoering oor nanotegnologie-innoveringsbestuur, tegnologie-spesifieke toekoms beplannings metodes, nanotegnologiespesifieke toekomsbeplanningsmetodes, en die benutting van kwantitatiewe middele in toekomsbeplanning.
Igatsha lobuchwepheshe elibhekene nobukhulu nokubekezelelana liguqule ukuthuthukiswa kwezimboni nokuthuthukiswa komnotho futhi kubikezelwa ukuthi liza ngomkhulu umfutho olandelayo le-Schumpeterian lokukhula komnotho. Amazwe amaningi azibeka esimweni esifanele ukuze ahlomule egatsheni lobuchwepheshe elibhekene nobukhulu kanye nokubekezelelana kuhlobene nokuhlaziywa kocwaningo Lokwenziwa Kwezinqumo Ngemibandela eminingi (LKNE), ukusetshenziswa kwezindlela ze-LKNE esimweni elibhekene nobukhulu kanye nokubekezelelana, okuwubuchwepheshe benjongo evamile. Ngakho-ke, ukuze kuqinisekiswe ukusetshenziswa okuhlakaniphile kwezinsizakusebenza ezilinganiselwe, amazwe kufanele akhethe futhi agxile ezindaweni ezibalulekile zocwaningo lwegatsha lobuchwepheshe elibhekene nobukhulu kanye nokubekezelelana ezinamandla okukhiqiza ukuncintisana kanye nembuyiselo ekutshalweni kwezimali. Kodwa-ke, ayikho imodeli ekhona njengamanje ezicini zempumelelo ezibalulekile zokuphathwa kokusungulwa kwegatsha lobuchwepheshe elibhekene nobukhulu kanye nokubekezelelana. Futhi, kukhona ukuntuleka kwamamodeli okubona into engakenzeki aqondene negatsha lobuchwepheshe elibhekene nobukhulu kanye nokubekezelelana. Ngaphezu kwalokho, nakuba ukubona into ingakenzeki kwegatsha lobuchwepheshe sokubona izinto zingakenzeki akukahlolisiswa ngokugcwele okwamanje.
Lolu cwaningo lwenze igatsha lobuchwepheshe elibhekene nobukhulu kanye nokubekezelelana kuhlobene Nokwenziwa Kwezinqumo Ngemibandela Eminingi, imodeli yocwaningo nokuthuthukiswa kwesifundo sezinto, izenzakalo esikalini senanomitha. Imodeli yaqinisekiswa kusetshenziswa ukuhlaziya isici sokuqinisekisa (UIS) ocwaningweni lochwepheshe abayi-167 beGatsha lobuchwepheshe elibhekene nobukhulu kanye nokubekezelelana baseNingizimu Afrika. Imiphumela ibonise ukuthi, ngezinga lokuzethemba elingama-95%, imodeli yanelisa ubuncane bezidingo zemodeli ye-UIS. Ucwaningo luqhubekile nokuthuthukisa imodeli yokubona okungakenzeki okuqondene neGatsha lobuchwepheshe elibhekene nobukhulu kanye nokubekezelelana ehlanganisa iGatsha lobuchwepheshe elibhekene nobukhulu kanye nokubekezelelana Kokuqamba kabusha kweDayimane , izimayini zobuchwepheshe, isayensi yamametrikhi, kanye nemodeli ye-Analytical Hierarchical Process Multi-criteria Decision Making (AHP-MCDM). Imodeli ye-AHP-MCDM yokubona okungakenzeki kwahlolwa ngokunamandla eNingizimu Afrika. Imiphumela ikhombise ukuthi izincwadi zaseNingizimu Afrika zeGatsha lobuchwepheshe elibhekene nobukhulu kanye nokubekezelelana - likhule kakhulu lisuka kumaphepha angama-68 ngonyaka wezi-2000 zaya kuyi-1 672 ngowezi-2019, nokumele ukukhula nge-2 459%. Uma kuqhathaniswa namanye amazwe e-BRICS, okuyiBrazil, Russia, India, neChina, iNingizimu Afrika inokukhiqiza okuphansi kweGatsha lobuchwepheshe elibhekene nobukhulu kanye nokubekezelelana , ithole inkomba yemisebenzi engu-0.68. Amanyuvesi abashicileli abagqama kakhulu ku-egatsheni lobuchwepheshe elibhekene nobukhulu kanye nokubekezelelana, kuyilapho imboni ezimele ikhiqize izincwadi ezimbalwa. Amalungelo obunikazi angama-48 kuphela ahlonziwe uma kuqhathaniswa nokushicilelwe okuyi-11 265, futhi kwatholakala ama-3.5% omncane wamaphepha ukubika ngemikhiqizo enikwe amandla yinano. Lokhu kuntuleka kokubika ngemikhiqizo enikwe amandla enano kungaba nomthelela omubi ekuhwebeni kwegatsha lobuchwpheshe elibhekene nobukhulu kanye nokubekezelelana. Amazwe aphezulu asebenzisanayo, abacwaningi abaphezulu, izikhungo eziphezulu, nezizinda zezomnotho zegatsha lobuchwepheshe elibhekene nobukhulu kanye nokubekezelelana kuyabikwa kulolu cwaningo. Izindawo zocwaningo zamasu ezibalulekile ezihlonzwe eNingizimu Afrika zihlanganisa izinto zenano, inano yephotholuminensi kanye ne-opthikhi, igatsha lemithi yenano, ikhathalysisi yenano, i-elektronikhi yenano, ubuchwepheshe bebhayiloji, namandla. Imiphumela yalinganiswa kusetshenziswa indlela yokuhlola kungakenzeki into yochwepheshe, enikeze ama-70% izinkambu zocwaningo ezibalulekile ezifanayo. Ucwaningo lunikela enkulumweni emayelana nokuphathwa kokusungulwa kwegatsha lobochwepheshe benano, izindlela zokubona izinto kusengaphambili eziqondene nobuchwepheshe obuthile, izindlela zokubikezela kusengaphambili eziqondene netheknoloji yenano, kanye nokusetshenziswa kwamathuluzi obuningi ekuboneni kusengaphambili.
