The impact of climate change on livestock farming in Eswatini : a modelling and participatory approach to adaptation

Abstract

One of the greatest challenges faced by countries around the world, this century, is climate change. With associated evidence which includes melting ice caps, increasing land and ocean temperatures plus an increase in weather extremes such as floods and droughts, this is likely to have overwhelming impacts on most production systems including agricultural production systems including people’s means to livelihoods. To ensure survival, humans have to adapt their activities. Literature indicates that, around the world and in Eswatini, in particular, research on climate change adaptation for livestock systems is limited and has many gaps. Consequently, this study aimed to investigate how climate change impacts on livestock farming in the Lowveld of Eswatini; to determine the adaptation strategies used; and investigate how access to climate forecasts influenced the farmers’ adaptation strategies to climate change. To answer the research questions associated with this aim, a mixed research design was used. The primary data used for this study was collected using questionnaires from 278 sampled farmers. Other data was obtained from key informant interviews and meteorological records. The data was analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics. These results indicated that the climate of the Lowveld had significantly changed over 31 years, and this had an adverse impact on both the farmers’ household and livestock farming activities. The majority of the farmers adapted both their household and livestock farming activities and used a multitude of adaptation measures. These measures were categorised into three broad adaptation strategies, namely: behavioural, management, and technological strategies resulting in a combination of eight strategies. The predictors of the farmers’ adaptations were assessed using Multinomial Logistic (MNL) regression. The farmers had access to seasonal forecasts, and they used them for adapting their crop farms but not for livestock farming because these forecasts were meant for crop farming only. These forecasts only assisted the livestock farmers in adaptation planning. The country has an abundance of adaptation policies; however, they have not been operationalized into laws and regulations. Policy options to assist with adaptation include: training and capacity building, rangeland management, early warning systems, marketing, and breed diversification.