Economic co-operation among BRICS countries and its impact on South Africa trade

Abstract

South Africa’s participation in BRICS presents numerous opportunities as some members are leading countries in terms of economic growth and population, creating strong consumption markets. South Africa’s capacity to fully benefit from BRICS has been called into question due to its economic challenges and overreliance on primary resources. The study investigated the impact of the BRICS economic co-operation on SA trade. The gravity model was estimated by using data from 2000 to 2018 and the Poisson Pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator that allowed for bilateral zero values between trading nations and control for heteroscedasticity. The study considered endogeneity and multilateral resistance of regional trade. The results showed that BRICS led to an increase of 0.945% in SA trade growth with other BRIC economies. Moreover, the coefficients on GDP, population, exchange rate, distance, language and BRICS dummy variables were statistically significant with the hypothesised signs.

Suid-Afrika se deelname aan BRICS skep vele geleenthede aangesien sommige ander lidlande voorlopers is betreffende ekonomiese groei en bevolking, en dus sterk verbruikersmarkte skep. Suid-Afrika se vermoë om die volle voordele van BRICS te benut word egter in twyfel getrek as gevolg van die ekonomiese uitdagings wat die land in die gesig staar en omdat daar te veel op primêre hulpbronne staatgemaak word. Hierdie studie stel ondersoek in na die impak wat ekonomiese samewerking deur BRICS-lande op Suid-Afrikaanse handel het. Die swaartekragmodel is beraam aan die hand van data van 2000 tot 2018 en die Poisson-pseudo-maksimumwaarskynlikheidberamer, wat voorsiening maak vir bilaterale nulhandelswaarde tussen lande en heteroskedastisiteitsbeheer. Die studie kyk na endogeniteit en multilaterale weerstand van streekhandel. Die bevindinge toon dat BRICS ’n handelsgroei van 0,945% in Suid-Afrikaanse handel met ander BRICS-ekonomieë meegebring het. Daarby is die koëffisiënte op BBP, bevolking, reële wisselkoers, afstand, taal en BRICS-toetsveranderlikes statisties beduidend met die veronderstelde tekens.

Ukubamba iqhaza kweNingizimu Afrika kwi-BRICS kuveza amathuba amaningi njengoba amanye amalungu ehola amazwe ngokuya ngokukhula komnotho kanye nenani labantu, okudala izimakethe ezisetshenziswa ngokuqinile. Ikhono leNingizimu Afrika lokuhlomula ngokugcwele kuyiBRICS kudala ukungabaza okuthile ngenxa yezinselelo zalo zomnotho kanye nokusetshenziswa ngokweqile kwezinsizakusebenza. Imodeli yamandla adonsela phansi ilinganiselwa ngokusebenzisa idatha kusuka kunyaka wezi-2000 kuya kuyizi-2018 kanye nesilinganiso sePoisson Pseudoefike emkhawulweni wokugcina sekulinganiselwa okuvumela amanani wamazwe amabili okuhweba phakathi kwamazwe ahwebelana nokulawulwa kwehetherosidasithi. Ucwaningo lubheke ukuphela kokuqina nokuphikisana kwamazwe amaningi kwezohwebo zesifunda. Imiphumela ikhombise ukuthi iBRICS iholele ekukhuleni kuka-0.945% ekukhuleni kwezohwebo eNingizimu Afrika neminye iminotho yeBRICS. Ngaphezu kwalokho, izinombolo zezibalo ku-GDP, inani labantu, inani lokushintshaniswa langempela, ibanga, ulimi kanye nokuguquguquka kwedami kuyiBRICS kwakubalulekile ngokwezibalo nangezibonakaliso eziqanjiwe.