Adaption to drought conditions by smallholder livestock farmers : lessons from2014-2016 drought conditions in the Limpopo region

Abstract

The Limpopo Province is a disaster-prone province, with drought being the most common natural disaster. From the year 2012 onwards, the province experienced extremely dry conditions that culminated in a severe drought in 2016. This negatively impacted the livelihoods of smallholder livestock farmers and the welfare of their livestock. The study investigated the coping strategies that were adopted by smallholder livestock farmers during drought conditions and the factors that were associated with animal loss during the drought that affected the region between 2014 and 2016. A randomly selected sample of 281 smallholder livestock farmers aged 18 years and older from the Greater Letaba Local Municipality participated in the study. Structured interviews, aided by questionnaires were used to collect the primary data. Proportions of categorical variables and the mean and standard deviation for continuous variables were computed and presented as tables and figures. A Poisson regression model was fitted to the data to identify factors that were significantly associated with loss of animals during the drought. More than half (55.50%; n=116) of the participants were made aware of the 2014–2016 drought through the agricultural extension officers, followed by 19.14% (n=40) who got to know about it through radio channels. More than half of the participants (58.29%; n=123) were aware of the impending drought. The most common support received from government agencies to help cope with the drought was in the form of animal feed (80%; n=124). Although most of the farmers (73.55%; n=114) benefitted from the support they received, slightly more than half (53.74%; n=151) did not cope well with the drought conditions. While Bellevue (B=-0.199; 95% CI: -0.380 -0.019) was negatively associated with loss of animals, Mokwakwaila (B=0.568; 95% CI: 0.405 0.731) had a strong positive association with loss of animals. Being married (B=-0.060; 95% CI: -0.305 0.183) or divorced (B= -0.035; 95% CI: -0.316 0.246) was negatively associated with loss of animals. Years of experience in farming (B=0.022; 95% CI: 0.010 0.033) and not receiving support during were strongly positively associated with loss of animals (B=0.324; 95% CI: 0.189 0.459). The low number of farmers who were aware of the impending drought and the large number of farmers who did not cope well suggests that many farmers in the area were not prepared for the drought. Groups such as widows, widowers and farmers who have many years of farming experience are high-risk groups and should be targeted for interventions in the event of a drought. More measures are needed to ensure that all agricultural centres are prepared and supported in event of a drought so as to minimise the impact of drought on local communities.

Die provinsie Limpopo is 'n rampgevoelige provinsie, met droogte as die mees algemene natuurramp. Vanaf 2012 het die provinsie uiters droë toestande beleef wat in 2016 op 'n ernstige droogte uitgeloop het. Dit het 'n negatiewe uitwerking gehad op die lewensonderhoud van kleinboere en die welstand van hul vee. Die studie het ondersoek ingestel na die hanteringstrategieë wat deur veeboere in kleinvee tydens droogtetoestande aangeneem is, en die faktore wat verband hou met diereverlies tydens die droogte wat die streek tussen 2014 en 2016 geraak het. 'N Lukraak geselekteerde steekproef van 281 kleinboere van 18 jaar en ouer van die Greater Letaba Local Munisipaliteit het aan die studie deelgeneem. Gestruktureerde onderhoude, gehelp deur vraelyste, is gebruik om die primêre data in te samel. Verhoudings van kategoriese veranderlikes en die gemiddelde en standaardafwyking vir deurlopende veranderlikes is bereken en as tabelle en figure aangebied. 'N Poisson-regressiemodel is op die data toegepas om faktore te identifiseer wat beduidend verband hou met die verlies aan diere tydens die droogte. Meer as die helfte (55,50%; n=116) van die deelnemers is bewus gemaak van die droogte 2014–2016 deur die landbouvoorligtingsbeamptes, gevolg deur 19,14% (n =40) wat dit via radiokanale leer ken het. Meer as die helfte van die deelnemers (58,29%; n=123) was bewus van die dreigende droogte. Die mees algemene steun van regeringsinstansies om die droogte die hoof te bied, was in die vorm van veevoer (80%; n=124). Alhoewel die meerderheid van die boere (73,55%; n=114) voordeel getrek het uit die steun wat hulle gekry het, het die droogtetoestande nie goed hanteer nie (53,74%; n=151). Terwyl Bellevue (B= -0.199; 95% CI -0.380 -0.019) negatief geassosieer is met verlies aan diere, is Mokwakwaila (B= 0,568; 95% CI 0,405 0,731) sterk positief geassosieer met verlies aan diere. Om getroud te wees (B= -0.060; 95% CI -0.305 0.183) of geskei (B= -0.035; 95% CI 0.316 0.246) was negatief geassosieer met verlies aan diere. Jare se ondervinding in die boerdery (B=0,022; 95% CI 0,010 0,033) en om nie ondersteuning gedurende te ontvang nie, was sterk positief geassosieer met die verlies van diere (B=0.324; 95% CI 0.189 0.459). Die lae aantal boere (ongeveer die helfte) wat bewus was van die dreigende droogte, dui daarop dat baie boere in die omgewing nie voorbereid was op die droogte nie. Groepe soos weduwees, wewenaars en boere met baie jare se boerdery-ervaring, is hoërisikogroepe en moet geteiken word vir ingrypings in die geval van 'n droogte. Meer maatreëls is nodig om te verseker dat alle landbousentrums voorberei en ondersteun word in geval van 'n droogte om die impak van droogte op plaaslike gemeenskappe te verminder.

Komelelo ke bothata bjo bogolo kudu go tsa temo/bolemi, segolothata re lebeletse balemirui ba bannyane. Limpopo province e na le kgatelelego ye kgolo kudu ka komelelo gagolo ge re lebeletse tsa bolemi. Nako le nako komelelo e tsea karolo ye kgolo moo e feleletsago e gatelela tsa temo. Tabakgolo ya rena kego lebelela ditsela le mehuta ye e fapanego yeo e shomishitshwego ke balemi go lwantshana le bothata bja komelelo gareng ga ngwaga wa 2014- 2016. Thuto ye e kgobokantshitshwe gotwsa go masepala wa motse selegae wa Greater Letaba Local Municipality, karolo ya Mopani, profenseng ya Leboa mo Afrika Borwa. Tshedimosho ye e hweditshwe ka mokgwa wa poledisano le balemi bao ba fapanego ba go lekana nomoro ya 281 ya balemi go dinaga tsa go fapanafapana. Poledisano ebile ka mokgwa wa peakanyanyo ya dopotsisho. Tshedimosho ye e kopantshitshwe le go hlathollwa ka mokgwa wa go ikgetha wa Strata Version 14. Hlathollo ya go ikgetha e berekishitshwe ka mokgwa wa ditiragalo yoya ka nako le dipalopalo tsa go kopantswa fao tahlegelo e sa tsebjego go ka lekanywa.le bokae la diperesente. Mabakakgolo ao a hlolago tahlegelo ya diruiwa a nyakishitswe ka mokgwa wa Poisson Regression Model. Bogolo bja (64.77%) go bao ba arabilego ebile banna le bogolo bja (74.38%) bja balemi ba be ba tseba ka komelelo ye e batamelago. Go feta halofo (55.50%) ya bao ba arabilegoba tsebishitshwe ka komelelo yeo e batamelang go tswa go bagakolodi, gomme gwa latela thelebisheni (8.13%) le dikuranta (1.44%). Go feta bogolo bja (58.29%) bja bao ba ikarabetsego ba laeditswe gore ba be ba tseba ka komelelo yeo e batamelago ke fao ba bego ba ikemiseditse. Bontshi bja thekgo (80%) yeo balemi ba e hweditsego ebile ka mokgwa wa dijo tsa diphoofolo, gwa latela latela thekgo yeo e filwego ka mokgwa wa meets le dithibela malwetsi go diphoofolo. Bogolo bjago makatsa (73.55%) bo laeditse gore thekgo yeo ba e hweditsego e ba tshwetsi molemo le diphoofolo tsa bona, go feta bonnyane (26.45%) bjoo bo rilego thekgo yeo ba e hweditsegobka nako ya komelelo ga se ya ba tshwela mohola goba gaya ba hola ka selo. Go ba modudi wa Bellevue (B= -0.199; 95% CI: -0.380 -0.019, p= 0.031) le Mokwakwaila (B=0.568; 95% CI: 0.405 0.731, p= 0.0001) ebile nthla ye bohlokwa go tahlegelo ya dirui. Go oketsa seo, go nyadiwa (B=0.942; 95% CI: 0.737 1.201), go hladiwa (B= 0.966 (95% CI: 0.729 1.279), le palo ya mengwaga ya botsebingo tsa temo (B=1.022; 95% CI: 1.010 1.034, p= 0.0001), le ge eba molemi ga se a hwetse thusho ka nako ya komelelo (B=0.324; 95% CI: 0.189 0.459, p= 0.0001) ebile dinhla tsa bohlokwa go tahlegelo ya dirui ka nako ya komelelo. Palo ya fase ba balemi bao ba bego bas a tsebe ka komelelo yeo e bego e batamela, e kgathile tema ye kgolo mo tabeng ya go paledisha balemi go ipeakanyela kgahlanong le komelelo yeo e bego e batamela. Ka fao seo se ba amile gampe. Mo nakong ye e tlang, matsapa a mantsi a swanetswi go tseiwa go kgonthishisha gore tsa temo ka moka di itokishetsa ka go lekana. Mmusho o swanetse go beeletsa kudu go lefapha la bagakolodi ka go oketsa palo ya mafapha a bagakolodi.