The evolution of thought on the availability of non-renewable natural resources in the long run

Abstract

There are different views about the availability of non-renewable resources in the long run. Hotelling’s (1931) seminal model of exhaustible resources greatly influenced subsequent studies. Hotelling’s and related fixed-stock models imply decreasing availability and increasing real prices of non-renewable resources in the long run. However, most of the empirical evidence does not support the prediction of higher real price trends. Hotelling’s model has been criticised for ignoring certain factors relevant to the discovery and innovation-driven creation of additional non-renewable reserves. Contrary to Hotelling’s fixed-stock assumption, this may expand the total stock of non-renewable resources available for profitable extraction. The main research objective of this study is to address this problem by identifying a broader range of factors to be used when constructing models of the availability of non-renewable resources. This was done by means of an extensive literature survey of both historic and more contemporary thought in this regard. This study shows the evolution of thinking and reasons behind the diversity of views on the availability of non-renewable resources. Thirty core facts were identified and a broad research framework formulated, including policies and methods to mitigate resource depletion and ensure availability both at national and global levels. A key finding is that improvements in various productivity-enhancing technologies have, thus far, delayed the onset of decreased availability and higher real price trends implied by Hotelling’s and other fixed-stock models.