Intergrating environmental risk into bank credit processess : The south African banking context

Abstract

The impact of climate change on the financial performance of companies is of concern to bank credit processes. The main objective of this research was to develop a South African contextualised credit process that incorporates environmental risk. The research methodology comprised of a mixed-method being content analysis – the qualitative portion and the Probability of Default prediction using a Merton Model and the Hoffmann and Busch (2008) carbon risk analysis model - the quantitative portion. A content analysis of the banks’ Annual Reports, Integrated Reports and Sustainability Reports showed that, while South African banks follow a qualitative approach to embedding environmental risk into their credit process, none of the four banks that formed part of the study divulged their quantitative approach to embedding environmental risk. The study used a proximity matrix method to examine the level of embedding. The second part of the study, which used prior studies as the benchmark, adopted the following: (1) a simulated carbon tax regime as a proxy for an environmental risk, and (2) the Hoffmann and Busch (2008) carbon risk analysis tool and the Merton Model (1974) as the bank credit process proxies. The second part of the study used a sample of 33 JSE-listed Carbon Disclosure Project reporting companies out of a population of 107. The carbon risk analysis showed that the companies in the materials and energy sector have a high carbon risk. However, the results from the Merton Model showed that the companies have enough profit to cushion the additional carbon tax liability, given the insignificant shift in probability of default between the three scenarios, where financial data had (1) no carbon tax, (2) was adjusted for a carbon tax with incentives, and (3) adjusted for carbon tax without incentives. Triangulation of the results from the content analysis, carbon risk analysis and the probability of default analysis confirms that South African banks do not fully integrate environmental risk across the credit value chain or process in the 2010 to 2017 period. However, the carbon risk analysis shows a heavy dependency on carbon sources for critical inputs into the South African companies’ production processes, which if not checked, will affect the credit portfolios of banks.