The role of personal remittances in financial sector development : evidence for Africa

Abstract

The study investigated the impact of remittances on financial development in Africa using the dynamic generalised methods of moments (GMM) and other panel data analysis methods with data from 2003 to 2015. Using the same econometric estimation methods, the study also explored the influence of the complementarity between remittances and economic growth on financial development in Africa. Literature on the relationship between remittances and financial development is mixed, inconclusive and indecisive. The desire to contribute towards literature on the influence of remittances on financial development in the African context prompted this study. In Africa, personal remittances had an insignificant positive impact on financial development across all the econometric estimation approaches in all the four models, in line with some empirical studies on the subject matter. African countries are urged therefore to avoid wasting their time developing and implementing remittances, foreign aid and human capital development enhancement policies as a way of spearheading financial development. Using both broad money (as % of GDP) and domestic private credit ratio as measures of financial development, the interaction between remittances and economic growth was found to have a non-significant negative effect on financial development in Africa. The policy implication is that Africa needs to avoid over relying on economic growth as a channel through which financial development can happen

Die studie het die impak van betalings op finansiële ontwikkeling in Afrika ondersoek – deur middel van die dinamiese veralgemeende momentemetode (GMM) en ander metodes van paneeldata-ontleding, met data van 2003 tot 2015. Dieselfde ekonometriese beramingsmetodes is ook ingespan om die invloed van die komplementariteite tussen betalings en ekonomiese groei op finansiële ontwikkeling in Afrika te ondersoek. Die literatuur oor die verwantskap tussen betalings en finansiële ontwikkeling is gemeng, onoortuigend en vaag. Die begeerte om tot die literatuur oor die invloed van betalings op finansiële ontwikkeling in die Afrika-konteks by te dra, het tot hierdie studie aanleiding gegee. In Afrika het persoonlike betalings ʼn onbeduidende positiewe impak op finansiële ontwikkeling in al die benaderings tot ekonometriese beraming in al vier modelle gehad, wat strook met sommige empiriese studies oor die onderwerp. Afrika-lande word dus gemaan om nie hul tyd te mors met die ontwikkeling en implementering van betalings en buitelandse hulp en beleide om mensekapitaalontwikkeling te verbeter as ʼn manier om finansiële ontwikkeling te lei nie. Daar is bevind dat sowel breë geldvoorraad (as ʼn persentasie van BBP) en die binnelandse private kredietverhouding as maatstawwe van finansiële ontwikkeling, die wisselwerking tussen betalings, en ekonomiese groei ʼn nie-beduidende negatiewe uitwerking op finansiële ontwikkeling in Afrika het. Die beleidsimplikasie is dat Afrika moet waak teen oorafhanklikheid van ekonomiese groei as ʼn kanaal waardeur finansiële ontwikkeling kan plaasvind.

Ucwaningo beluphenya umthelela wezimali ezibhadalwayo mayelana nokuthuthukiswa komkhakha wezezimali e-Afrika ngokusebenzisa izindlela ezifanayo zezikhathi (GMM) kanye nezinye izindlela zokuhlaziywa idatha yephaneli ngokusebenzisa idatha yonyaka ka 2003 ukufikela ku 2015. Ngokusebenzisa izindlela ezifanayo zohlelo lokulinganisa isimo somnotho (econometric estimation), ucwaningo futhi luye lwahlola umthelela wousebenzisana okuphakathi kwezimali ezibhadalwayo kanye nokuhluma komnotho mayelana nokuthuthukiswa ngezimali e-Afrika. Umbhalo wobuciko mayelana nobudlelwano phakathi kwezimali ezibhadalwayo kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwezinhlaka zezimali uxutshwe ndawonye, awunaso isiphetho futhi awukwazi ukuthatha izinqumo. Isidingo sokufaka igalelo embhalweni wobuciko mayelana nomthelela wezimali ezibhadalwayo kwihlelo lokuthuthukiswa kwezimali ngaphansi kwesizinda sase-Afrika, ykho okuphembelele ukuthi kube nalolu cwaningo. E-Afrika, izimali ezibhadalwa abantu ziye zaba nomthelela omuhle kwintuthuko yezimali kuzo zonke izindlela zokulinganisa izinga lentuthuko yezomnotho kuwo wonke amamodeli amane, ngokuhambisana nezinye izifundo zocwaningo oluphathekayo lwalesi sifundo. Ngalokho-ke amazwe ase-Afrika ayanxenxwa ukuthi agweme ukumosha isikhathi sawo athuthukisana futhi asebenzisa uhlelo lokuthumela izimali futhi agweme ukuqinisa imigomo yoncedo oluvela emazweni angaphandle kanye nokuthuthukisa abantu ngokwamakhono omsebenzi, njengento yokuhlahla indlela yohlelo lokuthuthukiswa kwezimali. Ukusethenziswa kokubili imali ebanzi (njengephesenti le-GDP) kanye njengesilinganiso sesikweletu, phecelezi-domestic private credit ratio sisebenza njengesilinganiso sezinga lokutthuthuka ngokwezimali, ukusebenzisana phakathi kwezimali ezibhadalwayo kanye nokuhluma komnotho kutholakele ukuthi kube nomthelela ongabalulekile omubi phezu kwezinga lentuthuko yezimali e-Afrika. Ngokomgomo lokhu kuchaza ukuthi i-Afrika idinga ukuthi igweme ukwencika kakhulu ukusebenzisa uhlelo lokuthuthukiswa komnotho njengomgudu lapho kungathuthukiswa komnotho.