International capital inflows in emerging markets: the role of institutions

Abstract

The primary objective of this study was to examine the broader impact of institutional quality on enhancing foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows in a sample of twelve emerging market economies for the period 2007 to 2017. We specifically sought to answer questions related to the key drivers of FDI and FPI inflows into emerging markets, with a particular emphasis on the role played by institutional quality factors. We further sought to interrogate the long-run and causal relationships between the key variables of FDI, FPI and institutional quality, in respect of the sample of emerging markets. The study employed the Principal Components Analysis (PCA) to construct a composite index for institutional quality composed of the six Worldwide Governance Indicators. Various other econometric models were applied, including the dynamic panel data generalised method of moments (GMM) model, the panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model for dynamic heterogeneous panels, and the panel vector error correction model (VECM). The results revealed that FDI in the selected emerging markets was, in the main, attracted by economic growth and institutional quality. Institutional quality, economic rowth and capital account openness were positive determinants of FPI inflows; however, stock market development stood out as the foremost determinant factor. In addition to finding long-run, cointegrating relationships between the key variables, it emerged that there was bi-directional causality between FDI and FPI, as well as between FDI and institutional quality in the long run. Despite the latter findings, the results further suggested that the long-run relationship between the two foreign capital inflows, i.e. FDI and FPI, was more of a substitutability or trade-off nature in our sample of emerging markets. In light of these findings, we recommended that it would be in the best interests of these emerging markets if the responsible policymakers continued to liberalise these economies. Further, it was shown that in order to attract inward international capital flows, financial liberalisation should be coupled with the strengthening of the domestic institutional environment.Strengthening institutions could curtail the persistence of institutional weaknesses and insulate emerging market economies from the adverse effects of volatile capital flows, and in the long-run enhance international capital inflows.

Inhloso enkulu yalolu cwaningo kwaye kuwukuhlola umthelela obanzi kwizinga leziko ekuqiniseni uhlelo lokutshalwa ngqo kwezimali ezweni langaphandle (foreign direct investment; FDI) kanye nemali engena mayelana nokuthengwa kwamagugu (shares, stocks and bonds) angenisa imali ezweni elingaphandle (foreign portfolio investment; FPI) kwizimakethe zamazwe eziyishumi nambili esikhathini esiphakathi kuka 2007 ukufika ku 2017. Empeleni besifuna ukuphendula imibuzo emayelana nezikhwezeleli ezisemqoka eziheha uhlelo lwe-FDI kanye ne-FPI ezimakethe ezifufusayo, ikakhulu kugxilwe kwindima edlalwa yizinto ezihlobene nezinga leziko. Siqhubekela phambili nokuphenya izinhlobo zobudlelwano besikhathi esinde kanye nobudlelwano obuyimbangela phakathi kwamavarebuli asemqoka e-FDI, i-FPI kanye nezinga leziko, mayelana nesampuli yezimakethe ezisafufusayo. Ucwaningo lusebenzise uhlelo lwe-Principal Components Analysis (PCA) ukwakha imvange yezinkomba ukwenzela izinga leziko eliqukethe izinkomba eziyisithupha ezibizwa phecelezi nge-Worldwide Governance Indicators. Amanye amamodeli alinganisa ezomnotho asetshenzisiwe, kuxutshwa phakathi idatha yamaphaneli eguquguqukayo ebizwa nge-dynamic panel data generalised method of moments (GMM) model, uhlelo lwe-panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model ukwenzela amaphaneli ahlukahlukene futhi aguquguqukayo, kanye nohlelo lwe-panel vector error correction model (VECM). Imiphumela iveze ukuthi i-FDI ezimakethe ezikhethiwe ezisafufusa, esikhathini esiningi, iye yahehwa ukuhluma komnotho kanye nezinga leziko. Izinga leziko, ukuhluma komnotho kanye nokuvuleka kwe-akhawunti yemali bekuyizinto eziyizinkomba ezinhle zokungena kwe-FPI; yize-kunjalo, ukuthuthukiswa kwemakethe yesitoko kuvele kwagqama ngaphezulu njengenkomba ekhombisayo. Ukwengeza phezu kolwazi olutholakele esikhathini esinde, ukuhlangana kobudlelwano obuphakathi kwamavarebuli asemqoka, kuye kwavela ukuthi kwakunezimbangela ezikhomba izindlela ezimbili zokungena kwezimali ezitshalwa ngaphandle, zona yilezi i-FDI kanye nezinga leziko esikhathini esinde. Naphezu kolwazi olutholakele kamuva, imiphumela iqhubeka nokuphakamisa ukuthi ubudlelwano besikhathi eside obuphakathi kwezinhlelo zokutshalwa kwezimali ezivela emazweni angaphandle, lezo zinhlelo yilezi, i-FDI kanye ne-FPI, bezingendlela ikakhulukazi yokushintshana/yokumisela noma yokushintshelana ngokuhweba kwisampuli yethu 5 yezimakethe ezisafufusayo. Mayelana nalolu lwazi olutholakele, sincome ukuthi kuzohambisana nokuthandwa yilezi zimakethe ezisafufusa uma ngabe abenzi bemigomo ababandakanyekayo baqhubeke nokususa izihibe zomnotho kula mazwe asafufusa. Ngaphezu kwalokho, kuye kwavezwa ukuthi ukuze kuhehwe izimali zamazwe angaphandle, uhlelo lokususwa kwezihibe zomnotho lufanele luhambisane nokuqiniswa kwesizinda esiyiziko lasekhaya. Ukuqiniswa kwamaziko kungaqeda isimo esintengayo seziko futhi kungasusa izimakethe zamazwe asafufusayo kwisimo esingagculisi sezimali ezingenayo, kanti esikhathini eside lokhu kungaqinisa ukutshalwa ukungena kwezimali ezivela emzaweni angaphandle

Maikemisetso magolo a thutopatlisiso eno e ne e le go tlhatlhoba ditlamorago ka bophara tsa boleng jwa ditheo mo go tokafatseng keleloteng ya dipeeletso tsa tlhamalalo tsa kwa dinageng tse dingwe (FDI) le dipeeletso tsa dipotefolio tsa kwa dinageng tse dingwe (FPI) mo sampoleng ya diikonomi tse somepedi tsa mebaraka e e tlhagelelang mo pakeng ya 2007 go fitlha 2017. Re ne re totile go araba dipotso tse di malebana le ditsamaisi tsa botlhokwa tsa keleloteng ya FDI le FPI mo mebarakeng e e tlhagelelang, go lebeletswe thata seabe sa dintlha tsa boleng jwa ditheo. Gape re ne re lebeletse go tlhotlhomisa go nna sebaka se se telele le sebako sa dikamano magareng ga dipharologantsho tsa botlhokwa tsa FDI, FPI le boleng jwa ditheo, malebana le sampole ya mebaraka e e tlhagelelang. Thutopatlisiso e dirisitse Tokololo ya Dintlha tsa Botlhokwa (PCA) go aga tshupane ya dikarolo ya boleng jwa ditheo e e nang le Disupi di le thataro tsa Lefatshe lotlhe tsa Bolaodi. Go dirisitswe gape dikao tse dingwe tse di farologaneng tsa ikonometiriki, go akarediwa sekao sa dynamic panel data generalised method of moments (GMM) sa data ya phanele e e farologaneng, sekao sa panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) sa diphanele tse di farologaneng le sekao sa panel vector error correction (VECM). Dipholo di senotse gore FDI mo mebarakeng e e tlhophilweng e e tlhagelelang e ne tota e ngokiwa ke kgolo ya ikonomi le boleng jwa ditheo. Boleng jwa ditheo, kgolo ya ikonomi le go bulega ga akhaonto ya kapitale e nnile diswetsi tse di siameng tsa keleloteng ya FPI; fela tlhabololo ya mebaraka ya setoko e tlhageletse jaaka ntlha e e kwa pele e e swetsang. Go tlaleletsa mo go fitlheleleng botsalano jwa pakatelele le jo bo kopanang jwa dipharologantsho tsa botlhokwa, go tlhageletse gore go na le go sebako sa dintlhapedi magareng ga FDI le FPI gammogo le magareng ga FDI le boleng jwa ditheo mo pakeng e e telele. Le fa go ntse go na le diphitlhelelo tse di kailweng la bofelo, dipholo gape di tshitshinya gore botsalano jwa paka e e telele magareng ga keleloteng ya kapitale ya kwa ntle k.g.r. FDI le FPI ke jwa mofuta wa go emisetsa se sengwe ka se sengwe mo sampoleng ya rona ya mebaraka e e tlhagelelang. Ka ntlha ya diphitlhelelo tseno, re atlenegisa gore go tlaa bo go le mo dikgatlhegelong tsa mebaraka eno e e tlhagelelang gore ba ba rweleng maikarabelo a go dira dipholisi ba ka tswelela go repisa diikonomi tseno. Mo godimo ga moo, go bonagetse gore go ngokela kelelo e e tsenang ya kapitale ya boditšhabatšhaba, go repisiwa ga merero ya ditšhelete go tshwanetse ga tsamaisiwa le maatlafatso ya tikologo ya ditheo tsa 7 selegae. Go maatlafatsa ditheo go ka fedisa go tswelela pele ga makoa a ditheo le go sireletsa diikonomi tsa mebaraka e e tlhagelelang mo ditlamoragong tse di maswe tsa dikelelo tse di maswe tsa kapitale, mme kwa bokhutlong, go tokafadiwe kelelo ya kapitale ya boditšhabatšhaba