Determinants of financial market development : the role of institutions

Abstract

This study aims to determine the main drivers of financial market development, with a specific interest in the relationship between the stock and bank credit markets, as proxies of financial market development, and the role of institutional quality, in ten African countries for the period of 2009 to 2017. A number of econometric techniques such as the General Methods of Moments (GMM) model for dynamic panel data, autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL) bound testing approach to cointegration, vector error correction model (VECM), and granger causality tests were applied in the study. We further developed a composite index for both financial market development and institutional quality using Principal Components Analysis (PCA). The results demonstrate that institutional quality, as well as infrastructure development, economic growth, and inflation are the main determinants of financial market development in our sample of ten African countries. Findings from the ARDL bound testing approach confirm the existence of a long-run association between institutional quality and financial market development. Although financial market development has no effect on economic growth, institutional quality was found to have a positive and highly significant effect on economic growth. Furthermore, employing the Granger causality test, we found uni-directional granger causality between financial market development and institutional quality, implying that financial market development is a significant causal factor for institutional quality. In consideration of these findings, policy formulation by governments should be designed towards enhancing financial and institutional quality development, and this can be possibly achieved by effective enforcement of law to encourage compliance, while simultaneously eliminating corruption and other institutional hindrances to development

Lolu cwaningo luhlose ukuveza izinhlaka ezingabaphembeleli abasemqoka ekuthuthukisweni kwezimakethe zezimali, kugxilwe kakhulu kubudlelwano obuphakathi kwesitoko kanye nezimakethe zamabhangi ahlinzekana ngezikweletu, njengabancedisi abathuthukisa izimakethe zezimali, kanye nendima emayelana nezinga leziko, emazweni ase-Afrika ayishumi esikhathini esiphakathi kuka 2009 ukufikela ku 2017. Inani lezindlela zokulinganisa izinga lomnotho ezinjenge-General Methods of Moments (GMM) model yedatha yephaneli eguquguqukayo, i-autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL) bound testing approach to cointegration, i-vector error correction model (VECM), Kanye negranger causality tests zisetshenzisiwe kucwaningo. Siqhubekele phambili nokwakha inkomba ehlangene yazo zombili izinhlaka; ukuthuthukiswa kwezimakethe zezimali Kanye nezinga leziko ngokusebenzisa uhlelo lwe-Principal Components Analysis (PCA). Imiphumela ikhombisile ukuthi izinga leziko, Kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwengqalasizinda, ukuhluma komnotho, Kanye nezinga lamandla email yizinkomba ezisemqoka zokuthuthukiswa kwezimakethe zezimali kusampuli yethu elula yamazwe ase-Afrika ayishumi. Ulwazi olutholakele ku-ARDL bound testing approach luqinisekisa ubukhona kobudlelwano besikhathi eside obuphakathi kwezinga leziko kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwezimakethe zezimali. Yize ukuthuthukiswa kwemakethe yezimali kungenawo umthelela kwezokuhluma komnotho, izinga leziko lona liye latholakala ukuthi linomthelela omuhle nosemqoka kakhulu ekukhuleni komnotho. Ngaphezu kwalokho, uma sisebenzisa uhlelo lweGranger causality test, sifumene i-uni-directional granger causality phakathi kwemakethe yezimali Kanye nezinga leziko, lokhu kuchaza ukuthi ukuthuthukiswa kwezimakethe zezimali kuyimbangela esemqoka yezinga leziko. Uma kubhekwa lolu lwazi olutholakele, imigomo eyakhwa uhulumeni kufanele yakhiwe ngenhloso yokuqinisa ukuthuthukiswa kwezinga lezimali Kanye nezinga leziko, kanti lokhu kungafinyelelwa ngokuqinisa kahle umthetho ukukhuthaza ukulandelwa komthetho, kanti ngakolunye uhlangothi kuncishiswe izinga lenkohlakalo Kanye nezinye izihibhe eziphazamiso ukuthuthukiswa kweziko.

Maikaelelo a thutopatlisiso ke go swetsa ka ditsamaisi tse dikgolo tsa tlhabololo ya mebaraka ya ditšhelete, ka kgatlhego e rileng mo kamanong magareng ga mebaraka ya setoko le ya sekoloto sa dibanka, jaaka kemedi ya tlhabololo ya mebaraka ya ditšhelete, le seabe sa boleng jwa ditheo, mo dinageng di le lesome tsa Aforika mo pakeng ya 2009 go ya go 2017. Go dirisitswe dithekeniki di le mmalwa tsa ikonometiriki di tshwana le sekao sa General Methods of Moments (GMM) sa data ya phanele e anameng, molebo wa tekeletso e kopanyang ya autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL), sekao sa vector error correction (VECM) le diteko tsa sesusumetsi tsa Granger. Gape re tlhamile tshupane ya dikarolo ya tlhabololo ya mmaraka wa ditšhelete le boleng jwa ditheo re dirisa Tokololo ya Dikarolo tse Dikgolo (Principal Components Analysis (PCA)). Dipholo di bontsha gore boleng jwa ditheo, gammogo le tlhabololo ya mafaratlhatlha, kgolo ya ikonomi le infoleišene ke diswetsi tsa tlhabololo ya mebaraka ya ditšhelete mo sampoleng ya rona ya dinaga di le lesome tsa Aforika. Diphitlhelelo go tswa mo molebong wa teko e kopanyang ya ARDL di tlhomamisa go nna teng ga kamano ya paka e telele magareng ga boleng jwa ditheo le tlhabololo ya mebaraka ya ditšhelete. Le fa tlhabololo ya mebaraka ya ditšhelete e sa ame kgolo ya ikonomi ka gope, boleng jwa ditheo bo fitlhetswe bo na le ditlamorago tse di siameng e bile di le botlhokwa mo kgolong ya ikonomi. Mo godimo ga moo, ka go dirisa teko ya Granger ya sesusumetsi, re fitlhetse go na le sesusumetsi sa ntlha e le nngwe sa Granger magareng ga lhabololo ya mebaraka ya ditšhelete le boleng jwa ditheo, mo go rayang gore tlhabololo ya mebaraka ya ditšhelete ke ntlha e e botlhokwa ya sesusumetsi sa boleng jwa ditheo. Fa go lebelelwa diphitlhelelo tseno, go dirwa ga dipholisi ke dipuso go tshwanetse ga dirwa gore go tokafatse tlhabololo ya boleng jwa ditšhelete le ditheo, mme seno se ka fitlhelelwa ka tiragatso e e bokgoni ya molao go rotloetsa kobamelo mme go ntse go fedisiwa bobodu le dikgoreletsi tse dingwe tsa tlhabololo mo ditheong.