Evaluation of carbon stock under major land use/land cover types for developing alternative land use scenarios for reducing greenhouse gas emissions

Abstract

In the dominantly small-scale subsistence agricultural system of Ethiopia, where most of the organic inputs are not returned to soil and land is not used based on its best suitability, the contribution of agriculture to climate change mitigation/adaptation through reduction of greenhouse gases emission is undermined. When this low-input agricultural practice is coupled with rugged topography, high population pressure, generally low soil fertility, and looming climate change, ensuring food and nutrition security of society as well as sustainable use of land resources is practically impossible. Under such circumstances, finding alternative land uses, through scientific investigation, that meet the triple mandates of climate-smart agriculture under current and future climate is imperative. In view of this, a study was conducted in Hades Sub-watershed, eastern Ethiopia, to evaluate the carbon stock of major land uses, evaluate suitability of land for rainfed production of sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L.), Maize (Zea mays L.), coffee (Coffea arabica), upland rice (Oryza sativa L.) and finger millet (Eleusine coracana L.), and project biomass production of late-maturing sorghum and maize varieties under changing climate and its contribution to carbon sequestration and reduction of greenhouse gases (GHGs) emission. Soil and vegetation samples were collected following recommended procedures. Secondary data on required crop parameters were collected for model calibration and validation in the biomass projection study made using the AquaCrop v6.0 model. Climate data of the study area was obtained from the National Meteorology Agency of Ethiopia and analyzed following standard procedures. Near-century (NC) (2017-2039) and Mid-century (MC) (2040-2069) climate was projected under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) using four models (CNRM-CERFACS-CNRM-CM5, ICHEC-EC-Earth, MOHC-HadGEM2-ES, and MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR) and a Multi-model Ensemble. Biomass production projection, for the climate projected under the two emission scenarios using the four models and the ensemble, was made for late-maturing sorghum (Muyira-1) and maize (BH661) varieties. From the projected biomass, organic carbon and its equivalent CO2 were estimated. Furthermore, adaptation measures, involving adjusting planting dates and irrigation, under the changing climate were evaluated for their influence on biomass production under the time slices, RCPs, and models mentioned above. The carbon stock assessment study was conducted on four major land uses (cultivated, grazing, coffee agroforestry, and forest lands) identified in the study area. The land suitability assessment, using the maximum limitation method, study was conducted on four soil mapping units identified in the sub-watershed. Results indicate that total organic carbon stock (soil, litter plus live vegetation) in the sub-watershed ranged from 138.95 ton ha-1 in the crop land to 496.26 ton ha-1 in the natural forest. The soil organic carbon stock was found to be relatively higher than that of the vegetation carbon stock in the natural forest and coffee agroforestry land uses. The results of suitability evaluation revealed that the maximum current and potential (after corrective xix measures are taken) land suitability class for production of late-maturing sorghum (180-240 days cycle), maize (180-210 days crop cycle), finger millet (120 – 150 days cycle) and coffee in the sub-watershed is marginally suitable (S3c). The maximum current and potential land suitability for upland rice (120 days) is not suitable (N2c). The major permanent limiting factor is low mean temperature (14.6 C) of the growing period in the study area as compared to the optimum temperature required for optimum growth of the selected crops. The major soil and landscape limitations include steep slope, poor drainage of low-lying areas, shallow effective root zone in the upper slopes, low organic matter and available P for sorghum and maize, high pH for maize and wetness for coffee. In all the climate models and emission scenarios, minimum and maximum temperature increment is high during June-July-August-September (JJAS) compared with the other seasons. The modest rise in minimum temperature and the slight increment of maximum temperature during the crop growing seasons (February-March-April-May (FMAM) and JJAS will benefit late-maturing sorghum and maize production in the study area. For the same model, the projected biomass yield and organic carbon sequestration of the two crop varieties varied with time slice and the type of emission scenario used. Generally, increasing biomass production and carbon sequestration were projected for Mid-century (MC) than Near-century (NC) for most of the models used. Late planting would increase sorghum biomass yield and the corresponding organic carbon as compared to early planting as projected by most of the models under both RCPs. Most models predicted an increase in maize biomass yield and organic carbon sequestration if supplementary irrigation is used. The results of this study indicate that the current land uses are not enhancing carbon sequestration because of their exploitative nature and the soil/landscape and climate are not optimum for production of the crops studied. The rise in temperature in the coming 50 years is expected to create a more favorable condition for production of late-maturing sorghum and maize varieties. In order to enhance carbon sequestration, soil productivity and crop yield, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the current land uses and their management require re-visiting.