Various studies on international capital flows have established the deterministic role of local
financial markets on the attractiveness of countries to inflow of foreign direct investment.
The current study investigated the impact of FDI inflows on the financial sector development
of countries in the Middle East and North Africa region for the period 2003 to 2016. Various
panel data analysis methods were employed. These approaches included fixed effects,
random effects, pooled OLS, FMOLS and the dynamic GMM. In addition, pre-estimation
tests, diagnostic tests which included panel unit root and co-integration tests and
robustness tests were conducted. Using both financial development proxies, broad money
as a ratio of GDP (model 1) and domestic credit to the private sector (model 2), the study
found that the lag in financial development had a significant positive effect on financial
development. In model 1 under fixed effects, random effects and pooled OLS, FDI had a
significant negative effect on financial development. In contrast, model 2 showed a
significant positive relationship running from FDI to financial development under the pooled
OLS method. The interaction between FDI and economic growth was found to have a
significant negative influence on financial development in models 1 and 2 under the pooled
OLS method. This finding indicates that economic growth had a deleterious effect on the
impact of FDI on financial development in the MENA region. In the light of these results,
policy makers in the MENA region countries should be urged to avoid undue reliance on
FDI in their efforts to develop their financial sectors. Furthermore, the MENA region nations
are urged to avoid implementing economic growth enhancement policies as a way of trying
to improve financial development, directly or indirectly, as the effort has been shown to
achieve the opposite effect.
Verskeie studies wêreldwyd oor die vloei van internasionale kapitaal is dit eens dat
aantreklike plaaslike finansiële markte direkte buitelandse beleggings (DBB) na lande laat
stroom. Hierdie studie het die uitwerking van DBB in die tydperk 2003 tot 2016 op die
finansiële sektore van lande in die Midde Oosterse en Noord-Afrikaanse (MONA) streek
ondersoek. Verskeie paneeldataontledingsmetodes is gevolg, waaronder vaste en
ewekansige effekte, saamgevoegde, gewone kleinstekwadratemetode (GKK),
volgewysigde kleinstekwadratemetode (VGKK) en die dinamiese, veralgemeende metode
van momente (VMM). Afgesien hiervan is voorberamings- en diagnostiese toetse,
waaronder paneeleenheidswortel-, koïntegrasie- en robuustheidstoetse, toegepas. Op
grond van sowel volmagte vir finansiële ontwikkeling, breë geld – as ʼn verhouding van die
BBP (model 1) – as binnelandse krediet aan die privaat sektor (model 2), is bevind dat die
vertraging in finansiële ontwikkeling ʼn opmerklik positiewe effek op finansiële ontwikkeling
uitgeoefen het. In model 1, onder vaste effekte, ewekansige effekte en saamgevoegde
GKK, het DBB ʼn opmerklik negatiewe effek op finansiële ontwikkeling gehad. Model 2,
daarenteen, het onder die saamgevoegde GKK-metode op ʼn opmerklik positiewe verband
tussen DBB en finansiële ontwikkeling gedui. Daar is in model 1 en 2 onder die
saamgevoegde GKK bevind dat die wisselwerking tussen DBB en ekonomiese groei ʼn
opmerklik negatiewe effek op finansiële ontwikkeling gehad het. Hierdie bevinding is ʼn
aanduiding daarvan ekonomiese groei ʼn nadelige effek op die uitwerking van DBB op
finansiële ontwikkeling in die MENA-streek gehad het. In die lig hiervan moet die
beleidsmakers van lande in die MONA-streek teen oormatige steun op DBB om hulle
finansiële sektore te laat ontwikkel, gemaan word. Hierbenewens moet lande in die MONAstreek
teen beleide vir ekonomiese groei as ʼn manier om finansiële ontwikkeling regstreeks
of onregstreeks aan te wakker, gewaarsku word omdat dit die teenoorgestelde uitwerking
sal hê.
Izifundo zocwaningo ezahlukahlukene ekuthunyelweni kwezimali sezisungule indima
yezimpawu ezikhombisayo zokuthunyelwa kwezimali ezimakethe zasemakhaya mayelana
nekhono lamazwe lokuheha ukutshalwa kwezimali okuqondile. Ucwaningo lwamanje luye
lwaphenya umthintela wokungena kwezimali ngohlelo lokutshalwa kwezimali ngaphandle,
phecelezi FDI mayelana nokuthuthukiswa komkhakha wezezimali emazweni asesiyingini
esiseMpumalanga eMaphakathi (Middle East) kanye kanye nase-Afrika eseNyakatho
(North Africa (MENA), ukusukela onyakeni ka 2003 ukufika ku 2016. Izindlela
ezahlukahlukene zokuhlaziya ipanel data analysis ziye zasetshenziswa. Lezi zindlela ziye
zaxuba imiphumela enqunyelwe isikhathi, imiphumela enganqunyelwanga isikhathi, uhlelo
lwe pooled OLS, lwe FMOLS kanye nohlelo oluguquguqukayo lwe GMM. Ngaphezu
kwalokho, izinhlelo zokuhlolwa phecelezi, pre-estimation tests kanye ne diagnostic tests,
lokhu okuyizinhlelo ezixuba amayunidi ephaneli panel unit root kanye nohlelo lwe cointegration
tests kanye nohlelo lwe robustness tests, nazo ziye zaxutshwa phakathi.
Ngokusebenzisa zombili izinhlelo zokuthuthukiswa kwezinhlelo zezimal, imali ebanzi –
njengesilinganiso semodeli 1 yeGDP – kanye nesikweletu sasekhaya esinikezwa
imikhakha yamabhizinisi angasese asekhaya (imodeli 2), ucwaningo luthole ukuthi
ukubambezeleka kwesikhathi sokuthuthukiswa kwezinhlelo zezimali kuye kwaba
nomthelela omuhle kakhulu ekuthuthukisweni kwezimali. Kumodeli 1, ngaphansi kohlelo
lwemiphumela enqunyelwe isikhathi, kwemiphumela enganqunyelwanga iskhathi kanye
nasohlelweni lwe pooled OLS, uhlelo lwe FDI luye lwaba nomthelela omubi kakhulu
kwezokuthuthukiswa kwezimali. Okuphikisana nalokho, imodeli 2 iye yakhombisa
ubudlelwano obuhle kakhulu, ukuqala ohlelweni lokutshalwa kwezimali emazweni
angaphandle (FDI) ukufika ohlelweni lwezokuthuthukiswa kwezinhlelo zezimali, ngaphansi
kohlelo lwe pooled OLS. Ukuhlangana phakathi kohlelo lwe FDI kanye nokuhluma
komnotho kutholakele ukuthi luye lwaba nomthelela omubi kakhulu ekuthuthukisweni
kwezinhlelo zezimali, kumamodeli 1 nemodeli 2, ngaphansi kohlelo lwe pooled OLS. Lolu
lwazi olutholakele lukhombisa ukuthi ukuhluma komnotho kuye kwaba nomthelela oyingozi
kakhulu ohlelweni lwe FDI mayelana nokuthuthukiswa kwezimali esiyingini seMENA. Uma
kubhekwa le miphumela, abenzi bemigomo emazweni asesiyingini seMENA kufanele bacelwe ukuba bagweme ukwencika ngendlela engenasidingo ohlelweni lwe FDI
kwimizamo yabo yokuthuthukisa imikhakha yezimali. Ngaphezu kwalokho, amazwe
asesiyingini saseMENA ayacelwa ukuba agweme ukusetshenziswa kwemigomo eqinisa
ukuthuthukiswa komnotho njengendlela yokuzama ukuthuthukisa izinhlelo zezimali,
ngendlela eqondile nangendlela engaqondile, njengoba umzamo sewukhonjiswe ukuze
kuphunyelelwe imiphumela engaqondiwe.
