Dividend policy and share price volatility: evidence from the Johannesburg Stock Exchange

Abstract

For many financial analysts the relationship between dividend policy and share price volatility remains inconclusive. The purpose of this study was to ascertain whether the relationship between dividend policy and share price volatility for JSE-listed firms in South Africa differs from previous, similar research done on different markets. The research study answered the research question and determined what the relationship is between dividend policy and share price volatility for a representative sample of JSE-listed firms. In addition, it met the objective of finding and evaluating the relationship between dividend policy and share price volatility for a selection of JSElisted firms, under various economic conditions. The research study spanned a 12- year period with more than 1 065 observations noted. Quantitative, secondary data was collected and descriptive statistics were used during the analysis phase. Two standard multiple regression models were used to regress dividend policy and share price volatility, with the first regression model only providing a crude test between the variables. The second regression model accounted for factors that affect both variables and was included to provide a more accurate test estimation. The relationship between the dividend payout ratio and share price volatility and the relationship between dividend yield and share price volatility were evaluated and reported on, under various different economic conditions (pre, during and post the 2008 financial crisis). The study concluded that there is a negative correlation between a firm’s dividend policy and share price volatility. It further found that a firm’s dividend payout ratio, and not the dividend yield ratio, remains the single biggest contributor in explaining the variance in share price volatility throughout the different economic phases presented by pre, during and post the 2008 global financial crisis.