The impact of credit risk on financial performance of South African banks

Abstract

The banking sector is an important industry that needs to be safeguarded because its failure is bound to have a negative knock-on effect on the economy at large. The 2007-2009 financial crises were occasioned by banks assuming disproportionate levels of risk resulting in a high incidence of non-performing loans on their books. As such, this study examined the impact of credit risk on the financial performance of 18 South African banks for the period 2008 to 2018. Panel data techniques, namely the pooled ordinary least squares (pooled OLS), fixed effects and random effects estimators were employed to test the relationship between credit risk and financial performance proxied by non-performing loans (NPLs) and by return on assets (ROA) or return on equity (ROE) respectively. The results of the study documented that credit risk is negatively related to financial performance. Thus, the higher the incidence of non-performing loans, the lower the profitability of the bank. Secondly, the study documented that growth has a positive effect on financial performance. This indicates that productivity capacity is ameliorated through bank development. Thirdly, it was found that capital adequacy is positively related to financial performance. While a greater capital adequacy ratio may instil confidence of stakeholders in a bank, making it competitive, a high capital base may be perceived as a lack of initiative and tying up resources which could have yielded better returns in alternative investments. Fourthly, the study did not find any conclusive relationship between size and financial performance. Lastly, the study found that bank leverage and financial performance are negatively related. The implications of the findings are that at a micro level, banks should observe prudent and stringent credit policies in order to limit the incidence of non-performing loans. At a macro level, regulators must enforce supervision in order to ensure that banks manage their credit risk according to the regulations to minimise the risk of bank failure.

Umkhakha wezamabhanga kulibubulo eliqakathekileko eliding ukobana litjhejwe ngombana ukwehluleka kwalo kuqaleka kungaba nomthelela omumbi kezomnotho ngokubanzi bawo. Umraro wezomnotho weminyaka ephakathi kuka -2007-2009 yayikhambisana nesikhathi lapho amabhanga athoma ukuzifaka engozini ekulukazi, kanti lokho kwarholela ebujameni besehlakalo esikhulu seenkolodo ezingenzi inzuzo encwadini zamabhanga. Yeke-ke, leli rhubhululo belihlola umthintela wesikolodo mayelana nobujamo beemali bamabhanga weSewula Afrika ali-18 ukusukela ngomnyaka ka 2008 ukufika ku 2018. Amano wephanele yedatha, wona ngilawa pooled ordinary least squares (pooled OLS), fixed effects kanye namatshwayo ameda alinganisa imithintela kusetjenzisiwe ngehloso yokuhlola itjhebiswano eliphakathi kobungozi besikolodo kanye nobujamo beemali obukhambisana neenkolodo ezingananzuzo (non-performing loans )(NPLs) begodu lokhu kukhambisana nenzuzo elethwa msebenzi wepahla eligugu (return on assets) (ROA) nanyana inzuzo elethwa magugu womnotho anjengemali/matjhezi (return on equity) (ROE) ngaleyo ndlela.. Imiphumela yerhubhululo itlolwe bona ubungozi bokulodisa buhlobene ngendlela embi nobujamo beemali. Yeke-ke, kutjho bona lokha izinga lezehlakalo zeenkolodo ezingangenisi inzuzo naliya phezulu, kutjho bona izinga lokwenza inzuzo ezincani nalo liya phasi emabhangeni. Kwesibili, irhubhululo litlolwe bona ukuhluma komnotho kunomthelela omuhle ebujameni beemali. Lokhu kutjengisa bona amandla wokukhiqiza asekelwa kuthuthukiswa kwamabhanga. Kwesithathu, kuye kwatholakala bona iimali ezaneleko zikhambisana kuhle nobujamo beemali. Kanti godu, isilinganiso esikhulu seemali ezaneleko singaletha ukuzethemba kwabadlalindima ebhangeni, lokhu kwenze ibhanga bona ibe sezingeni lokuphalisana, isisekelo esiphezulu sezeemali singathathwa njengokutlhogeka komzamo wokuhlanganisa imithombo ebeyingaletha iinzuzo ezincono kwamanye amahlelo wokutjalwa kweemali. . Kwesine, irhubhululo akhange lithole nginanyana ngiliphi itjhebiswano phakathi kobukhulu kanye nobujamo beemali. Kokugcina, irhubhululo lithole bonyana ukuqiniswa kwebhanga ngeemali kanye nobujamo beemali kuzizinto ezingahlobani kuhle. Ilwazi elitholiweko lihlathulula bona ezingeni lamabhizinisi amancani, amabhanga kufanele aqale imigomo eqinileko yokukolodisa ukobana akwazi ukwehlisa izehlakalo zeenkolodo ezingangenisi inzuzo. Ezingeni lamabhizinisi amakhulu, iimbethamthetho kufanele ziqinise ilihlo ukobana aqinisekise ukuthi amabhanga alawula ubungozi bokukolodisa ngokwemithetho ukuphungula ubungozi bokwehluleka kwamabhanga.

Icandelo lezeebhanki lushishino olubalulekileyo olufuna ukukhuselwa kuba ukusilela kwalo ngokuqinisekileyo kunganesiphumo esigangqalanga esingasihlanga kuqoqosho ngokubanzi. Ixesha lobunzima kwezemali ngowe-2007-2009 labangelwa ziibhanki ngamazinga omngcipheko angalamananga athe agqibelela kwisehlo esiphezulu seemalimboleko ezingazaliyo kwiincwadi zazo. Kananjalo, olu phononongo luvavanye impembelelo yomngcipheko wonikezomatyala kwizinga lokuphuma nokungena kwemali kwiibhaki zaseMzantsi Afrika ezili-18 kwisithuba sowe-2008 ukuya kowe-2018. Uluhlu lweenkcukachalwazi zobugcisa, olubizwa ngokuba yi-pooled ordinary least squares (i-pooled OLS), iziqikeleli zeziphumo ezizinzileyo kunye nezeziphumo zebhaqo zasetyenziswa ukuvavanya unxulumano phakathi komngcipheko wonikezomatyala kunye nezinga lokuphuma nokungena kwemali okumelwe ngokwelungelo ziimalimboleko ezingazaliyo (ii-NPL) kunye nembuyekezo yeeasethi (i-ROA) okanye imbuyekezo yezabelo (i-ROE) ngokulandelelana. Iziphumo zophononongo zingqine ngamaxwebhu ukuba umngcipheko wonikezomatyala unonxulumano olungaluhlanga nezinga lokuphuma nokungena kwemali. Ngoko ke, okona isehlo seemalimboleko ezingazaliyo siphezulu, kokona inzuzo yebhanki iphantsi. Okwesibini, uphononongo lungqine ngamaxwebhu ukuba uhlumo lunesiphumo esihle kwizinga lokuphuma nokungena kwemali. Oku kudandalazisa ukuba isakhono sokuvelisa senziwa ngcono ngophuhliso lwebhanki. Okwesithathu, kufunyaniswe ukuba isilinganiso senkunzi sinxulumene ngokukuko nezinga lokuphuma nokungena kwemali. Ngelixa umlinganiselo wesilinganiso senkunzi omkhulu unganika ukuthembeka koqoqosho kwabachaphazelekayo kwibhanki leyo, kuyenze ukuba ibe kwizinga lokukhuphisana nezinye, isiseko senkunzi ephezulu singathathwa njengokusilela kokusungula kunye nokudibanisa imithombo engeyivelise iimbuyekezo ezingcono kutyalomali olulolunye. Okwesine, uphononongo alukhange lufumanise naluphi na unxibelelwano olubonakalayo phakathi kobungakanani nezinga lokuphuma nokungena kwemali. Okokugqibela, uphononongo lufumanise ukuba inkxasomali yebhanki kunye nezinga lokuphuma nokungena kwemali zinxulumene ngokungakuhlanga. Okubhekiselele kokufunyanisiweyo kukuba kwicandelo loshishino olunganeno, iibhanki kufuneka ziqwalasele imigaqonkqubo yamatyala enobulumko nengqongqo ngenjongo yokunciphisa isehlo seemalimboleko ezingazaliyo. Kwicandelo loshishino olubanzi, abalawuli kufuneka banyanzele ukubekwa kweliso ukuqinisekisa ukuba iibhanki zilawula umngcipheko wonikezomatyala lwazo ngokwayamene nemigaqo ukunciphisa umngcipheko wokusilela kwebhanki.