Comparative analysis of the key foreign direct investment determinants in African countries

Abstract

This study attempts to analyse the key FDI determinants in African countries using annual data for the period from 2003 to 2015. It firstly, gives the introduction and the background of FDI. Secondly, it provides both theoretical and empirical literature review on the key FDI determinants. Based on the literature review, the pre-estimation diagnostics (correlation analysis, descriptive statistics and mean and overall mean analysis), panel root tests, panel co-integration tests, main data analysis (fixed effects, random effects, pooled OLS, fully modified OLS and dynamic GMM) and robustness tests using the lagged variable approach were conducted to analyse the key FDI variables. Main data analysis indicated that the lag of FDI had a significant positive impact on FDI. The empirical results revealed that human capital development, infrastructure, growth rate, trade openness, natural resources, financial development, unemployment, exchange rate, government final consumption expenditure and population are the key FDI determinants in African countries. The robustness tests using the lagged variable approach were estimated to analyse if there is a causal relationship FDI and other variables such GDP, random effects revealed that there is uni-directional causality from GDP growth to FDI. Additionally, FDI was found to have been negatively but non-significantly affected by economic growth under the pooled OLS.

Hierdie studie poog om die sleuteleterminante van buitelandse direkte investering (BDI) in Afrikalande te ontleed deur gebruikmaking van jaarlikse data vir die tydperk 2003 tot 2015. Eerstens stel dit BDI bekend en verskaf ’n agtergrond daarvoor. Tweedens bied dit sowel ’n teoretiese as empiriese literatuuroorsig van die belangrikste BDI-determinante. Op grond van die literatuuroorsig is die volgende uitgevoer om die belangrikste BDI-veranderlikes te ontleed: voorskattingsdiagnostiek (korrelasieontleding, beskrywende statistiek en ontleding van gemiddelde en algehele gemiddelde), paneelworteltoetse, paneelkoïntegrasietoetse, hoofdataontleding (vaste effekte, ewekansige effekte, saamgevoegde gewone kleinste kwadrate [GKK], volledig gewysigde GKK en dinamiese veralgemeende momentemetode [VMM]) en robuustheidstoetse deur gebruikmaking van die gesloerdeveranderlike-benadering. Hoofdataontleding het aangedui dat die naloop van BDI ’n beduidende positiewe uitwerking op BDI het. Die empiriese resultate het aan die lig gebring dat mensekapitaalontwikkeling, infrastruktuur, groeikoers, handelstoegang, natuurlike hulpbronne, finansiële ontwikkeling, werkloosheid, wisselkoers, die staat se finale verbruiksbesteding en bevolking die belangrikste BDI-determinante in Afrikalande is. Die robuustheidstoetse deur gebruikmaking van die gesloerdeveranderlike-benadering het ten doel gehad om te ontleed of ’n kousale verband tussen BDI en ander veranderlikes soos BBP bestaan. Ewekansige effekte het getoon dat daar eenrigtingkousaliteit van BBP-groei na BDI is. Daarbenewens is bevind dat BDI negatief maar niebeduidend geraak is deur ekonomiese groei ingevolge die saamgevoegde GKK.

Lolu cwaningo luzama ukuhlaziya izinto ezinquma ngotshalo-mali lwamanye amazwe oluqonde ngqo olwaziwa ngokuthi yi-foreign direct investment (FDI) emazweni ase-Afrika ngokusebenzisa idata yonyaka yesikhathi sokusukela ngo 2003 ukuya ku 2015. Okokuqala, lwethula nokuhllinzeka ngesendlalelo nge-FDI. Okwesibili, luhlinzeka ngokubuyekeza imibhalo yethiyori kanye nobufakazi ngezinto ezibalulekile ezinquma nge-FDI. Ngokulandela imibhalo ebuyekeziwe, isilinganiso sokubonwa kwezimbangela okwaziwa nge-pre-estimation diagnostics (correlation analysis, descriptive statistics kanye ne-mean ne-overall mean analysis), uhlolo lwe-panel root tests, uhlolo lwe-panel cointegration tests, kanye nohlaziyo lwe-main data analysis (fixed effects, random effects, i-pooled ordinary least squares [OLS], i-fully modified OLS kanye ne-dynamic generalised method of moments [GMM]. kanye nohlolo olujulile ngokusebenzisa inqubo ye-lagged variable approach kwaqhutshwa ukuhlaziya izinto ezibalulekile ezinquma ngama-FDI variables. Uhlaziyo lwe-data enkulu lukhombise ukusalela emuva kwe-FDI kube nomphumela omuhle kwi-FDI. Imiphumela yobufakazi bocwaningo ikhombise ukuthi ukuthuthuka kwabantu, ingqalasizinda, izinga lokukhula komnotho, ukuvuleka kwezokuhwebelana, imithombo yemvelo, intuthuko yezezimali, ukusweleka kwemisebenzi, izinga lokushintshiselana ngezimali, izindleko zokusebenzisa izinto kukahulumeni, kanye nesizwe sonkana, yizinto ezinkulu ezinquma nge-FDK kumazwe ase-Afrika. Uhlolo olujulile olusebenzisa inqubo ye-lagged variable approach lwalinganiselwa ukuhlaziya ukuthi ngabe bukhona ubuhlobo bembangela yobuhlobo obukhona phakathi kwe-FDI kanye namanye ama-variable afana nawe-GDP. Imiphumela engahlelekile ye-random effects ikhombise ukuthi kukhona uhidehide lwembangela phakathi kokukhula kwe-GDP kanye ne-FDI. Nangaphezu kwalokho, i-FDI itholakale ichaphazeleka kabi kodwa ngokungabalulekile kakhulu ngokukhula komnotho ngaphansi kwe-pooled OLS.