The effects of climate change on short-term insurance claims in South Africa

Abstract

Climate change has become one of the most debated environmental risks. The world is faced with the threat of weather variability. There has been an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. There is rising concern that weather losses might affect the sustainability of insurance businesses. The primary obective of the study was to ascertain the significance of changes in temperature, precipitation and wind speeds in explaining changes in weather-related claims.Furthermore the reseach had three key secondary objectives, firstly to find if changes in annual average temperature levels lead to changes in weather-related claims. Secondly to determine if average annual wind speeds lead to changes in weather-related loss .Thirdly to establish if the average changes in annual rainfall or precipitation levels lead to changes in weather-related claims. Quantitatively this study explored the relationship between climate change and weather losses in South Africa. Temperature, rainfall, and wind speed were the main weather variables analysed. Lack of properly recorded insured weather losses was the major challenge. Nonetheless, total economic weather losses were used as a proxy for insured weather losses.The analysis employed regression, cointegration and vector error correction models. Study findings showed that climate change is influencing weather losses. The existence of correlation and causality between weather variables and losses was also affirmed. Thus the insurance industry should comprehensively incorporate climate change into its business strategy to minimise exposure.