Inflationary thresholds,financial development and economic grwoth:New evidence from two west African countries

Abstract

This paper examines the role of inflationary threshold effects in the finance-growth relationship for Ghana and Nigeria. Ghana and Nigeria are relatively homogenous in terms of financial development, economic growth, and inflationary history and therefore provide an acceptable choice for this empirical analysis. Due to lack of data availability, the sample spans the period 1964–2011 for Ghana and 1961–2011 for Nigeria. Using appropriately specified threshold regressions, we found inflationary thresholds in both countries during the study periods. Specifically, the inflationary threshold range for Ghana is 10.73%–29.83%. For Nigeria, the inflationary threshold range is 10.07%–19.25%. By estimating the threshold regressions, we found financial development to have positive and significant effect on economic growth during low and moderate inflationary regimes; and insignificant effect on growth during high inflationary regimes, for both countries. In particular, financial development impact greatly on growth in Ghana when the rate of inflation is below a threshold of 10.73% but dissipates when inflation rate reaches and exceeds 29.83%. Similarly, financial development impact greatly on growth in Nigeria when the rate of inflation is below a threshold of 10.07% but dissipates when inflation rate reaches and exceeds 19.25%. The results imply that policymakers in these countries should take inflation into account when devising policies to promote financial development with the aim of generating economic growth. For without low or moderate inflation rates, such policies will not achieve their intended purposes.