The sectoral employment intensity of growth in South Africa, 2000-2012

Abstract

The rate of unemployment in South Africa remains stubbornly high despite vastly improved macroeconomic fundamentals and relatively high rates of economic growth for most of the post-1994 democratic era. Employment growth was much weaker than might have been expected given the improved economic outlook. This thesis investigates how the sectoral employment intensity of output growth in the eight non-agricultural sectors of the South African economy has evolved from 2000 to 2012, with a view to identifying key growth sectors that are employment intensive. An econometric model of the demand for labour is used to estimate employment elasticities in the major Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) divisions of the economy. The results suggest that aggregate employment and economic growth diverged and that jobless growth occurred in South Africa during the period under review. South Africa has become less labour intensive and more capital intensive, reflecting a structural adjustment that has weakened the employment-growth relationship. At the sectoral level, the results suggest the presence of a long-run relationship between employment and growth in finance and business services, manufacturing, transport and the utilities sectors. In particular, the results suggest that the tertiary sector performed best in terms of the employment intensity of output growth. This reflects the changing structure of the economy and the nature of employment shifting away from the primary towards the tertiary sectors. Investment in the tertiary sector may help to foster new employment opportunities and assist in improving the overall employment intensity of output growth in South Africa.