The association between working capital measures and the returns of South African industrial firms

Abstract

This study investigates the association between traditional and alternative working capital measures and the returns of industrial firms listed on the Johannesburg Stock E"change. Twenty five variables for all industrial firms listed for the most recent 10 years were derived from standardised annual balance sheet data of the University of Pretoria's Bureau of Financial Analysis. Traditional liquidity ratios measuring working capital position, activity and leverage, and alternative liquidity measures, were calculated for each of the 135 participating firms for the 1 0 years. These working capital measures were tested for association with five return measures for every firm over the same period. This was done by means of a chi-square test for association, followed by stepwise multiple regression undertaken to quantify the underlying structural relationships between the return measures and the working capital measures. The results of the tests indicated that the traditional working capital leverage measures, in particular, total current liabilities divided by funds flow, and to a lesser e"tent, long-term loan capital divided by net working capital, displayed the greatest associations, and e"plained the majority of the variance in the return measures. At-test, undertaken to analyse the size effect on the working capital measures employed by the participating firms, compared firms according to total assets. The results revealed significant differences between the means of the top quartile of firms and the bottom quartile, for eight of the 13 working capital measures included in the study. A nonparametric test was applied to evaluate the sector effect on the working capital measures employed by the participating firms. The rank scores indicated significant differences in the means across the sectors for si" of the 13 working capital measures. A decrease in the working capital leverage measures of current liabilities divided by funds flow, and long-term loan capital divided by net working capital, should signal an increase in returns, and vice versa. It is recommended that financial managers consider these findings when forecasting firm returns.