A study of the relationship between changes in housing values and variations in macroeconomic factors

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to analyse the changes in housing values in Windhoek, Namibia over the past ten years and explore links in property value variation to macroeconomic changes during that period. The objectives of this research are twofold. Firstly this research compiles and assesses the movement of housing values over the past ten years. Secondly this research assesses if there is a causal relationship between changes in macroeconomic factors and housing values, and to define the nature of this relationship. The timing and magnitude of response by housing values to changes in macroeconomic factors are investigated. The primary data requirements for this study are a monthly relative value index of housing prices for the Windhoek area and macroeconomic factors. Macroeconomic data collected relates to macroeconomic conditions within Namibia that could have an effect on housing prices. This includes information on housing supply, GDP, population levels, inflation and interest rates. The results of this study explore the relationship between these factors and changes in housing prices as reflected by changes in the housing index. The most significant result of this study is the effect of housing availability on housing values. Changes in the total supply of housing as estimated by the number of houses built in a month affect changes in housing values after 5 and 6 months. A total of 20.5% of the change in housing values can be explained by the change in total housing supply. The effect of interest rates found by this study was lower than the theory and literature reviews would have led us to expect. The results of the Pearson correlation test for the relationship between percentage changes in interest rates and percentage changes in future housing values found that a relationship exists 8 months after the change in interest rates occurred. Interest rates were found to explain 5.5% of the change in housing values 8 months later. No significant effects were noted for changes in inflation. For population and income changes there was insufficient data to perform more than a high level look at possible interactions with the level of housing prices.