Trends in the age pattern of fertility, 1995-2005, in the context of the child support grant in South Africa

Abstract

There has been concern in recent years about the impact of the child support grant on fertility in South Africa and probable changes in age-specific fertility rates. Specifically, it has been mooted that the grant may be increasing age-specific fertility rates among younger women. Using the Gompertz relational model and survey and census data, this study examines trends in the age pattern of fertility in South Africa during the period 1995-2005. The results indicate that there have been shifts in the age pattern of fertility. However, the factors responsible for the shifts are debatable. Policy-makers should therefore be cautious about drawing conclusions regarding the relationship between the child support grant and fertility in South Africa, as policies based on poorly informed conclusions could have major financial implications. © 2009 Development Bank of Southern Africa.