Impact of disaggregated government investment and consumption spending on economic growth in South Africa

Abstract

This study was motivated by low rates of economic growth and insufficient investment in infrastructure to balance infrastructure backlogs and growth that the South African economy has been facing in recent years. The main objective of the study is to examine the impact of disaggregated government investment and consumption spending on economic growth in South Africa using the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique and Error Correction Model (ECM). Annual time series data spanning the period 1983– 2017 was employed. Earlier studies conducted in South Africa measured the impact of aggregated government expenditure on economic growth using different methodologies, including estimating procedures, model specifications and time frames. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to study the effect of disaggregated government investment spending on the South African economy. This study, therefore, examines the disaggregated government spending on education, health, defence and social protection along with other control variables. The ARDL cointegration test result indicates the existence of a long-run relationship between the variables. The estimated ECM model reveals that the short-run impact of each explanatory variable is significant in explaining changes in economic growth in South Africa. These results will enable the spheres of government to formulate and adjust economic development policies that will produce the needed economic growth in line with the radical economic transformation programme in South Africa.