A mixed methods analysis of tax capacity and tax effort in the Southern African Development Community (SADC)

Abstract

The design of a country’s tax system is important because of the critical role played by taxation in financing public spending towards economic and social development. In this regard, there is need to enhance the understanding of whether current tax systems in the SADC provide sufficient tax revenue to meet public spending needs. This study provides empirical evidence on the outcomes of existing tax systems in the SADC with the aim of offering a basis for normative evaluation of the regions’ tax policies. Literature posits that there are numerous economic and institutional factors that limit the amount of taxes that a country can actually raise. Against this background, the substantive aim of this study was to assess the determinants of tax capacity and tax effort in the SADC in view of providing a pragmatic approach to tax policy design. The methodology of this study involved the use of both quantitative and qualitative analysis (mixed methods approach) where the latter was used to augment the findings of the former. The first phase involved the use of a multi-step procedure to estimate determinants of tax capacity and tax effort using stochastic tax function and unbalanced panel data for 13 SADC countries. The study disentangled the error term to estimates the random-effects separately from tax effort in order to capture the time- invariant country-specific effects. Further, tax effort was classified persistent (long-run) and transient (short-run). The study was able to estimate the determinants of tax effort and to rank each member state according to its tax effort. The second phase involves a narrative analysis of tax legislation in the SADC over the period 2002-2016. The study used budget statements and Acts of parliament as the major sources of information to identify significant changes in tax legislation over this period. The findings of the quantitative analysis indicate that financial deepening, economic development and trade openness influence tax capacity, while corruption and inflation influence tax effort. In addition, the findings show that the region has low persistent tax effort than transient tax effort, implying that improving tax administration has superseded tax policy reforms. This result is augmented by the narrative record which seemingly shows that tax legislation efforts were largely successful in tax administration but rather limited in view of tax policy. In this regard, the study recommends that tax policy design should be informed by the conditions of a country and policy considerations relating to peculiar circumstances to obtain robust tax policies.