Modeling, analysis and numerical method for HIV-TB co-infection with TB treatment in Ethiopia

Abstract

In this thesis, a mathematical model for HIV and TB co-infection with TB treatment among populations of Ethiopia is developed and analyzed. The TB model includes an age of infection. We compute the basic reproduction numbers RTB and RH for TB and HIV respectively, and the overall repro- duction number R for the system. We find that if R < 1 and R > 1; then the disease-free and the endemic equilibria are locally asymptotically stable, respectively. Otherwise these equilibria are unstable. The TB-only endemic equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable if RTB > 1, and RH < 1. How- ever, the symmetric condition, RTB < 1 and RH > 1, does not necessarily guarantee the stability of the HIV-only equilibrium, but it is possible that TB can coexist with HIV when RH > 1: As a result, we assess the impact of TB treatment on the prevalence of TB and HIV co-infection. To derive and formulate the nonlinear differential equations models for HIV and TB co-infection that accounts for treatment, we formulate and analyze the HIV only sub models, the TB-only sub models and the full models of HIV and TB combined. The TB-only sub model includes both ODEs and PDEs in order to describe the variable infectiousness and e ect of TB treatment during the infectious period. To analyse and solve the three models, we construct robust methods, namely the numerical nonstandard definite difference methods (NSFDMs). Moreover, we improve the order of convergence of these methods in their applications to solve the model of HIV and TB co-infection with TB treatment at the population level in Ethiopia. The methods developed in this thesis work and show convergence, especially for individuals with small tolerance either to the disease free or the endemic equilibria for first order mixed ODE and PDE as we observed in our models.