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Statistical modeling of unemployment duration in South Africa

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dc.contributor.advisor Njuho, P. M. Nonyana, Jeanette Zandile 2016-07-12T07:00:23Z 2016-07-12T07:00:23Z 2015-12 2016-07-12
dc.identifier.citation Nonyana, Jeanette Zandile (2015) Statistical modeling of unemployment duration in South Africa, University of South Africa, Pretoria, <> en
dc.description.abstract Unemployment in South Africa has continued to be consistently high as indicated by the various reports published by Statistics South Africa. Unemployment is a global problem where in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries it is related to economic condition. The economic conditions are not solely responsible for the problem of unemployment in South Africa. Consistently high unemployment rates are observed irrespective of the level of economic growth, where unemployment responds marginally to changes Gross Domestic Product (GDP). To understand factors that influence unemployment in South Africa, we need to understand the dynamics of the unemployed population. This study aims at providing a statistical tool useful in improving the understanding of the labour market and enhancing of the labour market policy relevancy. Survival techniques are applied to determine duration dependence, probabilities of exiting unemployment, and the association between socio-demographic factors and unemployment duration. A labour force panel data from Statistic South Africa is used to analyse the time it takes an unemployed person to find employment. The dataset has 4.9 million people who were unemployed during the third quarter of 2013. The data is analysed by computing non-parametric and semi-parametric estimates to avoid making assumption about the functional form of the hazard. The results indicate that the hazard of finding employment is reduced as people spend more time in unemployment (negative duration dependence). People who are unemployed for less than six months have higher hazard functions. The hazards of leaving unemployment at any given duration are significantly lower for people in the following categories - females, adults, education level of lower than tertiary, single or divorced, attending school or doing other activities prior to job search and no work experience. The findings suggest an existence of association between demographics and the length of stay in unemployment; which reflect the nature of the labour market. Due to lower exit probabilities young people spent more time unemployed thus growing out of the age group which is more likely to be employed. Seasonal jobs are not convenient for pregnant women and for those with young kids at their care thus decreasing their employment probabilities. Analysis of factors that affect employment probabilities should be based on datasets which have no seasonal components. The findings suggest that the seasonal components on the labour force panel impacted on the results. According to the findings analysis of unemployment durations can be improved by analysing men and women separately. Men and women have different challenges in the labour market, which influence the association between other demographic factors and unemployment duration en
dc.format.extent 1 online resource (vii, 74 leaves) : tables, graphs
dc.language.iso en en
dc.subject Unemployment duration en
dc.subject Panel data en
dc.subject Duration dependence en
dc.subject Non-parametric en
dc.subject Semi-parametric en
dc.subject Survival technique en
dc.subject Exit probability en
dc.subject.ddc 331.1370968
dc.subject.lcsh Unemployment -- South Africa -- Statistics eng
dc.title Statistical modeling of unemployment duration in South Africa en
dc.type Dissertation en
dc.description.department Statistics en M. Sc. (Statistics)

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